Date: Tue Jul 18 2006 15:01
trotsky (@MNG) ID#248269:
today's drill results release is another major milestone imo. it appears Hope Bay is huge.
Date: Tue Jul 18 2006 14:32
trotsky (@pm stocks) ID#248269:
Copyright © 2002 trotsky/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
clearly they are trying to put up a fight here in spite of the decline in gold. relative outperformance in the face of a declining PoG is no less meaningful than previous underperformance in the face of a rising PoG. the caveat is of course that we have to await the close to see if this outperformance attempt sticks.
Date: Tue Jul 18 2006 13:31
trotsky (Hambone, 12:52) ID#248269:
Copyright © 2002 trotsky/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
no, i don't disagree with it. if today's damage sticks, the moving averages and indicators derived from them ( such as MACD ) will certainly retain a bearish bias. still, imo the pm stocks are very resilient since yesterday - down, but not as badly as they could have been. just trying to keep an open mind, since money flows continue to look ok.
Date: Tue Jul 18 2006 12:40
trotsky (Hambone) ID#248269:
Copyright © 2002 trotsky/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
"While sentiment indicators ( put/call and others ) may be slightly bullish ( from a contrarian point of view ) sentiment can remain bullish or bearish for quite a long time and still be correct. Simply witness the stock market sentiment during the bull market ended in 2000. Hardly bearish all the way up, was it?"
i object to this example on the grounds that the stock market was in secular bull market at the time - as is gold NOW. therefore, sentiment that is contrary to the secular long term trend should be given a different weight than sentiment that is in accordance with the long term trend.
Date: Tue Jul 18 2006 12:32
trotsky (traderneal@pm stocks) ID#248269:
Copyright © 2002 trotsky/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
imo they're pretty resilient here ( well, so far anyway ) . true, they didn't rise last week along with gold, but they also didn't replicate the steep fall in the broader market to the same extent as before.
imo once CPI and Bernanke's blah-blah on the Hill are out of the way they could well rally for a bit again.
Date: Tue Jul 18 2006 12:24
trotsky (Earl, 11:52) ID#248269:
Copyright © 2002 trotsky/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
i note that in the US, money velocity is way down and keeps falling. contrary to Saville i don't believe deflation is 'impossible' in a fiat system. it is in theory ( since the CB could in theory monetize anything ) , but not in practice imo.
Date: Tue Jul 18 2006 12:15
trotsky (yellowcab) ID#248269:
Copyright © 2002 trotsky/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
"Q. Is it not the fault of the Lebanese Government for allowing a terrorist group to operate from the country and attack another country from its borders?
A. Yes. "
actually, no, the answer is NO. the Lebanese government has no means to rein in Hizballah. even if it wanted to, it simply can not - the movement is militarily superior, plus the Lebanese army has a very large contingent of Shi'ites to boot, so any attempt to disarm the guerillas would probably split the army as well.
"Therefore why are the Lebanese surprised that the 4th strongest military would finally defend itself with shock and awe; they are surprised because they underestimated the Israeli rseponse."
oh please. Israel has been occupying Southern Lebanon for 18 years! do you seriously think it has any capacity left to 'surprise' the Lebanese? besides, 'shock and awe' ( which somehow always amounts to collective punishment and indiscriminate killing of civilians ) has been the preferred strategy for like, forever. has it had any positive results thus far? is there LESS terrorism because of it? you tell me.
Date: Tue Jul 18 2006 11:54
trotsky (@pm stocks) ID#248269:
Copyright © 2002 trotsky/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
it's obviously hard not to be bearish on them, because everyhwere i look, the general opinion seems to have an overwehlmingly bearish slant with regards to the short to medium term outlook.
however: yesterday, the XAU volume put/call ratio clocked in at 1.90 ( almost twice as many traders betting on downside than on upside ) , which pushed the overall XAU p/c OI ratio up by 0.03 to 1.19.
the Rydex pm fund had small outflows again, and the CF ratio continues to hover close to the 2005 low ( which in turn was THE bearish sentiment maximum point in the 2004-now period ) .
lastly, money flows do not look bad, on the contrary. every dip is apparently being bought by big traders.
looking at the HUI chart,
Date: Tue Jul 18 2006 11:32
trotsky (philbond) ID#248269:
Copyright © 2002 trotsky/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
i know you're from Lebanon, and i appreciate your updates. am i correct that you're a Lebanese Christian? i'm just assuming this from the thrust of your sympathies. anyway, i agree with you that the Hizballah isn't doing anyone any favors, and no doubt the non-Shi'ite population of Lebanon has no great love for the movement. however, i still take issue with the some of your statements.
"I've gotta call it objectively and right now it looks like Israel made the correct move."
this strikes me as callous. two Israeli soldiers were captured, and in retaliation Israel has so far destroyed a lot of Lebanese infrastructure, and per Sunday evening had killed 210 people, of which 190 were civilians and 9 were members of the Lebanese army. that leaves only 5 who could conceivably have been guerillas. in what way this is a 'correct move' is certainly debatable.
"If Hizballah has nothing more than Katyushas and a few slightly longer range missiles from the stone age, they're finished."
this begs the question, with what miracle armaments did Hizballah survive the 1982-2000 Israeli occupation of Southern Lebanon? if military might were a decisive factor in fighting a guerilla movement, Iraq and Afghanistan would now be Westernized democratic utopias. instead one is in total chaos while the other is permanently on the brink of same, as well as the biggest narcotics producer on the planet.
"With public opinion moving quickly against Hizballah as Israel continues its relentless assault, it's difficult to see how a Hizballah linching can be prevented."
without a doubt non-Shi'ite Lebanese see it that way, but they've probably seen it that way before this crisis as well. the large pro-Syrian demonstrations the Hizballah arranged last year showed that it has more than considerable support. btw., just to make that clear, i do share your disdain for that fundamentalist nutjob Nasrallah. to see this guy with his self-satisfied smirk at his press conferences while people are dying left and right is seriously off-putting.
"Let's see if Israel can maitain that "fine-line" of what to bomb and when to break. "
what 'fine line'? the bombing appears quite indiscriminate - and it is tied to a demand that Israel knows can't be fulfilled - namely that the weak Lebanese government rein Hizballah in. with what? its three Vietnam era choppers?
you see, the problem as i see it is that they are punishing all of Lebanon - for something that Hizballah did. this isn't going to help any in defeating Hizballah, although it may well serve to gratify a few IDF general's egos. the price, as always, is paid by the innocent bystanders. |
