Four in 10 Republicans Would Not Find McCain an "Acceptable" Nominee
Clinton, Edwards, Gore most acceptable possible Democratic nominees
July 19, 2006
by Jeffrey M. Jones
poll.gallup.com
GALLUP NEWS SERVICE
PRINCETON, NJ -- A recent Gallup Panel poll asked Republicans and Democrats whether they would find each of several possible contenders for their party's 2008 presidential nomination to be "acceptable" nominees. Unlike other nomination ballot questions that measure respondents' first choice from among a list of possible candidates, this question paints a broader picture of the level of potential support and opposition for each candidate.
Hillary Clinton is the clear front-runner among Democrats when voters are asked to choose which one candidate they would prefer for the Democratic nomination for president, but the current poll finds Democrats are about equally likely to rate Clinton, John Edwards, and Al Gore as acceptable nominees. Rudy Giuliani and Sen. John McCain typically vie for the lead in Republican preference polls, but a greater percentage of Republicans say they would find Giuliani acceptable than say this about McCain (73% to 55%). Four in 10 Republicans say they would not find McCain to be an acceptable GOP presidential nominee. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice is also widely considered by Republicans to be an acceptable nominee.
Gallup's June 26-29 poll tested Democrats' (and Democrat-leaning independents') reactions to 13 potential candidates and Republicans' (and Republican leaning independents') reactions to 12 potential candidates. While none of the politicians evaluated in the poll have officially announced their candidacies for president, many have laid the groundwork for a run by visiting early primary and caucus states like Iowa or New Hampshire or by setting up political action committees to raise money for themselves and other candidates. Others have been talked about as potential candidates, even though some (like Rice and Florida Gov. Jeb Bush) have stated they do not intend to run.
In general, very few of either party's candidates are rated acceptable by a majority of the party rank-and-file. For some candidates, this is because they are not yet well known and many respondents cannot evaluate them. At the same time, there are several other potential candidates who are better known but are already rated as "unacceptable" by a majority of their party.
While this approach gives a good sense of where the candidates currently stand, it is important to emphasize that these opinions can change once candidacies are officially announced and campaigning begins in earnest. Even if candidates are found "unacceptable" by a majority of their party's supporters now, that doesn't mean their candidacies are necessarily doomed. What it does indicate is that they are obviously starting off in a relatively weak position.
Republicans
Only three candidates would be acceptable to a majority of Republicans -- Giuliani (73%), Rice (68%), and McCain (55%).
Next, I'm going to read you a list of people who may run for the Republican nomination for president in 2008. For each, please tell me if you would find that person to be an acceptable nominee for president from the Republican Party, or not. First, [RANDOM ORDER].
BASED ON 441 REPUBLICANS OR REPUBLICAN LEANERS
2006 Jun 26-29
Yes, acceptable
No, not acceptable
No
opinion
%
%
%
Former New York City Mayor, Rudy Giuliani
73
25
2
Secretary of State, Condoleezza Rice
68
29
3
Arizona Senator, John McCain
55
41
5
Former Speaker of the House, Newt Gingrich
45
50
5
Florida Governor, Jeb Bush
44
52
4
Tennessee Senator, Bill Frist
38
44
18
Virginia Senator, George Allen
36
35
29
Vice President, Dick Cheney
34
61
5
New York Governor, George Pataki
33
51
17
Massachusetts Governor, Mitt Romney
31
42
27
Arkansas Governor, Mike Huckabee
17
40
43
Kansas Senator, Sam Brownback
14
43
43
Republicans are closely divided in their evaluations of Newt Gingrich and George Allen as presidential nominee material. They tilt against the candidacies of Bush, Sen. Bill Frist, and Gov. Mitt Romney, and appear to reject possible runs by Dick Cheney, Gov. George Pataki, Gov. Mike Huckabee, and Sen. Sam Brownback. Of this second-tier of candidates, Huckabee, Brownback, Allen, and Romney are the least well known, so evaluations of them are probably most subject to change between now and the primary season.
So far, Bush and Cheney have indicated they will not run for president in 2008. Gingrich has not ruled out a bid, while Pataki, Frist, Romney, Huckabee, and Brownback are believed to be seriously considering a run and many have already made appearances in early primary and caucus states.
What is most notable in the Republican data is the substantial proportion of party supporters (41%) who would consider McCain an unacceptable nominee for their party. In polls measuring nomination preference, McCain usually places first or second to Giuliani. In early June, the last time Gallup measured nomination preferences, 28% of Republicans said they were most likely to support Giuliani and 24% McCain for the 2008 Republican presidential nomination.
The current poll's sample size of 441 Republicans and leaners limits the amount of subgroup analysis available, but the data show that conservative Republicans are less likely to deem McCain acceptable (49%) than Republicans who identify themselves as moderates or liberals (66%). Since nearly two Republicans identify themselves as politically conservative for every one saying they are liberal or moderate, McCain's challenge is clear. It is thus no surprise that he has recently made outreach attempts to conservative leaders, such as Jerry Falwell.
McCain's strength as a presidential candidate would be in his cross-party appeal if he were able to secure the Republican nomination. Independents (55%) and Democrats (56%) are about as likely as Republicans (59%) to view McCain favorably, according to a June 23-25 USA Today/Gallup poll. (Typically, partisan politicians receive much higher ratings from their party's supporters.)
Thus, McCain could be a very formidable candidate in the general election, but may have difficulty winning the Republican nomination. In 2000, he did quite well in primary states that allowed independents to vote in the Republican primary -- like New Hampshire and Michigan -- but did not fare as well in primaries where only registered Republicans could participate, such as Georgia, Florida, and Ohio. He also fared better in northeastern states where Republicans tend to be more moderate or liberal compared with Republicans in other parts of the country.
This suggests that at this early stage of the campaign, despite their close standings in preference polls, Giuliani has an advantage over McCain in that he more widely appeals to Republicans. Much can change once active campaigning begins, should both men decide to run. In particular, Giuliani's past support for abortion rights and gay rights could cause conservatives to sour on him. Rice would also appear be a formidable candidate but does not appear to be seriously considering a run for the presidency at this time.
Democrats
Most Democratic preference polls show Clinton with a wide lead over the rest of the potential Democratic field. Gallup's last test of Democrats' nomination preferences in June showed 37% supporting Clinton, compared with 16% for Gore, 12% for Edwards, and 11% for Sen. John Kerry. But the current analysis suggests that Democrats would be as likely to support Edwards or Gore as the nominee as they would Clinton, which suggests her early lead may not be insurmountable if her possible campaign struggles. Democrats would apparently be less enthusiastic about Kerry being nominated, who like McCain is acceptable to most members of his party but faces substantial opposition.
Next, I'm going to read you a list of people who may run for the Democratic nomination for president in 2008. For each, please tell me if you would find that person to be an acceptable nominee for president from the Democratic Party, or not. First, [RANDOM ORDER].
BASED ON 496 DEMOCRATS OR DEMOCRATIC LEANERS
2006 Jun 26-29
Yes, acceptable
No, not acceptable
No
opinion
%
%
%
Former North Carolina Senator, John Edwards
71
25
4
New York Senator, Hillary Rodham Clinton
69
29
1
Former Vice President, Al Gore
68
31
1
Massachusetts Senator, John Kerry
59
40
1
Delaware Senator, Joe Biden
44
37
19
Retired General, Wesley Clark
42
49
10
Democratic National Chairman, Howard Dean
40
54
6
New Mexico Governor, Bill Richardson
36
38
26
Former South Dakota Senator, Tom Daschle
35
50
15
Wisconsin Senator, Russ Feingold
29
41
30
Former Virginia Governor, Mark Warner
29
42
29
Ohio Congressman, Dennis Kucinich
21
51
27
Iowa Governor, Tom Vilsack
19
47
35
In addition to the four leading candidates, more Democrats say they would find Sen. Joe Biden to be acceptable than unacceptable. Democrats are evenly divided in their views of Gov. Bill Richardson, but one in four does not have an opinion and cannot evaluate him.
There are three politicians who are found unacceptable by a majority of Democrats: Howard Dean, Rep. Dennis Kucinich (both of whom ran unsuccessfully in 2004), and Tom Daschle, the former Senate minority leader. Nearly half find Wesley Clark, another unsuccessful 2004 candidate, to be unacceptable. Clark and Kucinich are considering a second run for the presidency, while Dean pledged not to run for president in 2008 while campaigning for his current position as chair of the Democratic National Committee.
Sen. Russ Feingold, former governor Mark Warner, and Gov. Tom Vilsack are thought to be seriously considering runs for the Democratic nomination, but all three are unknown to about one in three Democrats and are more likely to be viewed as unacceptable than acceptable nominees at this point.
Survey Methods
Results for this Gallup Panel study are based on telephone interviews with 496 Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents, aged 18 and older, and 441 Republicans and Republican-leaning independents, aged 18 and older, conducted June 26-29, 2006. Respondents were randomly drawn from Gallup's household panel, which was originally recruited through random selection methods. The panel was weighted prior to sampling so that it was demographically representative of the U.S. adult population. For results based on these samples, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±5 percentage points. In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.
Next, I'm going to read a list of people who may be running in the Republican primary for president in the next election. After I read all the names, please tell me which of those candidates you would be most likely to support for the Republican nomination for President in the year 2008, or if you would support someone else. [ROTATED: Virginia Senator, George Allen; Kansas Senator, Sam Brownback; Tennessee Senator, Bill Frist; Former Speaker of the House, Newt Gingrich; Former New York City Mayor, Rudy Giuliani; Arkansas Governor, Mike Huckabee; Arizona Senator, John McCain; New York Governor, George Pataki; Massachusetts Governor, Mitt Romney]
BASED ON 419 REPUBLICANS AND REPUBLICAN LEANERS WHO ARE REGISTERED TO VOTE
BASED ON 449 REPUBLICANS AND REPUBLICAN LEANERS
2006 Jun 1-4
Republican
registered voters
All Republicans
%
%
Rudy Giuliani
29
28
John McCain
24
24
Newt Gingrich
8
8
Mitt Romney
6
7
Bill Frist
6
6
George Allen
5
5
Sam Brownback
2
2
Mike Huckabee
2
2
George Pataki
1
1
Other
3
3
None
4
4
All/any
1
1
No opinion
9
10
Next, I'm going to read a list of people who may be running in the Democratic primary for president in the next election. After I read all the names, please tell me which of those candidates you would be most likely to support for the Democratic nomination for President in the year 2008, or if you would support someone else. [ROTATED: Delaware Senator, Joe Biden; Retired General, Wesley Clark; New York Senator, Hillary Rodham Clinton; Former South Dakota Senator, Tom Daschle; Former North Carolina Senator, John Edwards; Wisconsin Senator, Russ Feingold; Former Vice President, Al Gore; Massachusetts Senator, John Kerry; Former Virginia Governor, Mark Warner; Iowa Governor, Tom Vilsack]
BASED ON 447 DEMOCRATS AND DEMOCRATIC LEANERS WHO ARE REGISTERED TO VOTE
BASED ON 489 DEMOCRATS AND DEMOCRATIC LEANERS
2006 Jun 1-4
Democratic
registered voters
All Democrats
%
%
Hillary Rodham Clinton
36
37
Al Gore
16
16
John Edwards
12
12
John Kerry
11
11
Wesley Clark
4
4
Joe Biden
4
4
Russ Feingold
3
3
Mark Warner
2
2
Tom Daschle
*
1
Tom Vilsack
--
--
Other
3
3
None
2
3
All/any
*
*
No opinion
5
5
* Less than 0.5% |
