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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory
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To: ild who wrote (66496)7/20/2006 1:29:58 PM
From: orkrious  Read Replies (1) of 110194
 
Date: Thu Jul 20 2006 12:17
trotsky (Hambone@e-wavers) ID#248269:
Copyright © 2002 trotsky/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Kapex postet that this was the scenario he expected. he termed the recent up-wave a b-wave.
i harbor some doubts however - mainly because sentiment in b waves tends to become very bullish - and sentiment has been extremely cautious for the entire move.
it's quite possible though that gold and gold stocks have somewhat different counts. imo the most likely wave count for the XAU is that the Feb-March decline was an A, the March-May rally a B and the May-June decline a C. this doesn't necessarily mean that the correction is over. it's possible that the recent move up was an X wave ultimately separating TWO a-b-c structures. this would then fit well with a count for gold that evolves in the manner you suggested. however, it is too early to tell for sure imo. sentiment and money flow data don't really support the medium term bear case here. not even yesterday's strong rally was able to kindle any enthusiasm on the part of option traders for instance. XAU p/c volume ratio came in at 0.90 yesterday - not as extreme as the day before by a long shot ( 2.89 the day before yesterday ) , but remarkably high for a strong up day.
i guess it all depends on how soon the market begins to discount the coming steepening of the yield curve.
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