<<Does anybody have any thoughts about the upcoming conference call? I am wondering about the following:
1. The tone of the call. The PPS is nearly half of what it was at the time of the last call in May. Are the sharks going to be in the water looking for blood, or will the tone be more conciliatory?>>
Tone will be professional. The only ones who get hysterical are the retail players. And altho is is conceivable that we have some nasty hedge fund "analysts" on the call, I seriously doubt it. I fully expect the lion's share of the short-covering to occur prior to the CC.
<<2. The number of analysts. Will we have a good number of analysts/institutions on the call? You and I may listen to the call, but we're squirrels in a world where the elephants move the PPS. How many elephants will there be?>>
as many, if not more, than at last CC (and there were quite a few at that one). HSOA is a more compelling value/growth play at $7 than it was at whatever higher pps it traded at the last CC.
<<3. Announcements (either official or unofficial "hand tipping", e.g. "we plan to close on an acquisition this year"). Will we get any? Will there be any hints of new business lines (either through acquisition or through ARH-type relationships)?>>
You'll definitely get reaffirmation -- at least IMHO -- of the "we intend to close at least one significant acquisition this year." Altho the co.'s currency (pps) has taken a hit, the fundies will ultimately drive the pps back north when it deserves to be. exogenous mkt factors remain the wild card, of course. Beyond the above reaffirmation, we will get very bullish guidance for the rest of the year. Beyond that, who knows? (Tune in.)
<<4. Updates on existing projects. Will we hear about how ARH is doing, and possibly get an update on the projected revenues for the second half of the year? Any updates about further expansion into more Home Depot territories?>>
Most definitely.
<<5. Back to that PPS for a moment. Obviously, the PPS has moved quite a bit these past three months, and in a direction that most of us would not prefer that it go. I know that management's focus is on the long term growth of the business rather than the short term movement of the PPS ... but the PPS is the two-ton pink elephant in the room, and the more they try to ignore it, the more it will be on everybody's minds.>>
At the SH mtg, mgmt stressed that it is not really interested in courting (or even maintaining) retail; it (rightly) views its job as expanding the tute base. Further, mgmt advised that tutes want to know/understand what the co.'s 3-yr game plan is. I would much prefer that mgmt stick to this approach (and fully expect them to do so) during the CC.
<<6. Will the guy who thanked HSOA's management for paying for his new pool be on this next call?>>
He's been foreclosed. Another margin casualty...
<<7. Any reaffirmation of FY 2006 guidance and of the $500 million revenues within three years figure?>>
Yes. Yes, of course.
<<I guess I am trying to generate some discussion on a day with little news. And maybe as a further idea, we can come out of this with a list of questions that we'd like answered at the call (assuming any of us can get through to the Q&A session)...>>
Doubt we can get on, but drafting a list of questions and submitting them via e-mail in advance of the CC may influence mgmt in its presentation to touch on those issues (at least the ones that have the most substantive merit).
as always, JMHO/FWIW. |
