My strategy is to short finance - but when the time is right.
Phil said today we will have a political rally to keep the wheels on until the election - wall street will engineer this to the best of thier ability - paulsen was brought in to help - to do so banks or semis must go up because they are such large parts of the sp500 - but as you can see from the chart semis are going down - phil expects a rally in the semis soon and is waiting on an entry point - he bought a little SMH today. After the election he believes the market is going to become highly volatile and blow up. Only nimble traders will make money during that time - buy and hold or short and hold will not make you a winner from what he is saying. You will have to shorten your trading durations considerably if what he predicts comes to pass. Instead of 5% a year in a money market you will be making 5% a day - but you have to time it right or the rigged casino will wipe you out.
I anticipate Fed to raise interest rate to 5.5 in August - then pause and rise later.
Phils says his big money friends are buying canadian CD's who want to just buy and hold and are too lazy to trade daily. That Bernanke is a dove and will be forced to pause and lower rates - he does admit he does not know when Bernanke will start lowering rates - but after that senator attacked Bernanke with the housing charts and got paid off by the housing lobby they will pressure bernanke - that in 2007 dow will be 7800 if the fed doesn't start cutting rates SOON.
you don't agree? What is more important to american and chinese politicos? Strong dollar or happy employed voters?
In order to take advantage of the "Falling Dollar" (against commodities rather than currencies),
Right - who can debase and weaken thier currency the fastest to keep workers employed? Seems no matter what the US does other nations are ahead of them in that race. Capitalism is doing some ugly things to some people right now seeking the cheapest society. We can no longer compete with hungry starving lower caste indian in widget manufacturing or online tech support - so we must move on to bigger fish to fry - stargate atlantis cities for our own consumption. Super colliders - asteroid mining robots - the hard stuff.
US will have to build infrastructure to convert the raw materials to products. Doug said few weeks back that this build up (including energy buildout to support these manufacturing base) itself will be highly inflationary.
Cheney and Mr. Burns are setting up nuke plants in india and the USA - mish says buy uranium - I have some of those stocks. Chromatic dispersion is in washington right now working himself to death bringing fiber to the curb for the masses - we have to have more energy for all these people getting on the broadband internet - not to mention the hundreds of millions getting those 100 dollar laptops across the globe eh? 3000 nuclear plants in 10 years will change energy costs dramatically eh? There used to be a lot of copper in the collusus of rhodes eh? New thinkers found better use for the material than a pretty statue eh?
There is no hope for Fed to lower rates to support the falling asset markets.
Like hoover found out - you can print the money - but you cant make it go where you want - Japan printed the money and people took it to do carry trades and buy gold and such eh? Now they are draining the swamp - so to keep the tide up and hide all the global faults - someone else has to take up the slack now eh? Why is everyone trying to compete to be the cheapest most efficient buggywhip maker when all these new technologies and products like gas engined vehicles are just around the corner? I don't get it.
During the Asian financial crisis, asian currencies crashed but that did not increase their exports, did it?
They still have the bad loans on the books - they didn't wipe all the bad debt clean eh?
How can USD fall against commodities and increase US exports?
Commodities don't have to get more expensive - US worker has to become cheaper than asian/indian worker - several ways to get to dublin - cut benefits here - check - destroy labor unions here - check - raise benefits and workers rights in other nations - still waiting eh? Everything I am reading - it will take 20-30 years perhaps before US worker can equalize to indian/african/asian man - hard times ahead. That is for exporting the widget to some global consumer though eh?
But I am not interested in exports - I don't want to see you and me and mish work hard in a factory building widgets to send to some asian man - what I want to see is us working on infrastructure here building underground maglev trains, floating cloud cities, 3000 nuclear power plants, etc etc - that is not manufacturing for export - that is building the future stargate atlantis's for personal consumption - like when the Amish all get together to build a barn - they are not sending it to India - they are building it for their own use. I want to see moonbases and space stations and more hubble telescopes and space mining and space elevators - not to export - to consume for my own greedy selfish dreams. Either the people will want this too and get the right leaders in to do this and we will all come together like the amish for this common goal or we will flounder resting on our laurels not getting much done but lots of infighting from all the boredom.
Especially after the manufacturing base has been destroyed by prolonged credit bubble. Obviously, Unemployment is what matters the most and that is why Fed will increase interest rates to arrest unemployment.
Unemployment is a given for a long time as far as making widgets - we can boot criminals who work for free to australia (oops they stopped that) - well we can boot mexicans back to mexico - the capitalists will still seek them out - either here or where the cheap labor goes. Look at the Amish in Lancaster - they have a nice life in some regards eh? Ben stein said our government debt is looking at a downgrade in a few years - when the US gubbment becomes junk bond status then yah rates will have to go up for investors to take on the risk no? But until the election - the short term solution is less pain for j5p (he cant afford 6 anymore) at least if re-election is a goal eh?
Unfortunately, increase in interest will cause more layoffs. Some 80 years later, people will still be blaming Fed for interest rate hike!! Read the 1920s Ben Bernanke:
dailyreckoning.com;
What finally revolutionized thinking about the business cycle and economic growth in Europe was a book from a Russian professor, Dr. Michael Tugan-Baranowski, titled Theory and History of Trade Cycles in England, published only in German in 1901. Based on a detailed study of British cycles and crises, he made several revolutionary statements, such as that the ultimate aim of production is not to improve living standards, but the creation of productive capital stock and the pursuit of profits by entrepreneurs.
Agreed, doctors should be working to obsolete thier business and go broke - but most doctors I know are working to keep that nice house and porsche zooming along.
Referring to the above about what Phil says - that you will only make money in a highly volatile market if you are nimle - and remembering the 2 guys in eddie murphys trading places - wether you win or lose Jay - as long as you keep trading - they win - so these cycles are not really "wished" by the great bully's to be smoothed out - for it is this gyration and volatility that lets these LIONS attack the lazy herd and get free dinners off the weaker lazier ones eh? Mr. Toll wanted everyone to still be buying his stock last year so he could dump it on them - don't forget your real purpose here citizen - to make the BULLYs have a better life at your expense - they don't want equals - they want slaves.
Jay I posted about being at 1 dollar store and the umbrella costing 4 bucks - 3 doors down in the same shopping center at another dollar store the same umbrella was 1 buck - that is WASTEFUL no? I go to ebay and three thousand people are trying to supply the same leather phone case with huge variations in the price. This does not seem logical to me - why hasn't people seeking the lowest prices stamped out these differences?
Over the past few years, U.S. policies have boosted private consumption as never before in conformity with the conventional thinking that this must stimulate investment. Its true counterpart is the lowest level of business fixed investment.
Further reading your article I am going to anger many of my capitalist gold money free market friends - but I have to agree with some of the points - giving oprah and princess all the free credit this society can bear to buy 200 dollar jeans makes me want to puke - I would much rather princes had nice 10 dollar jeans and central planners were building stargate atlantis employing us all in furthing our advancement - something I don't see 200 dollar jeans doing.
Take my collosus of rodes example - we could have made fashionable shoes and clothes with copper or we could have used that same copper to build internets - one seems much more beneficial to society than the other in my opinion - but the free market of princesses going into debt for widget purchasing doesn't agree eh?
Economic growth has become completely dependent on consumer spending, and this, in turn, has become completely dependent on rising house prices providing the collateral for the most profligate consumer borrowing.
Economic growth needs to come from nuclear plants, orbiting solar collectors, stargate atlantis cities - all done with great scientists and statesmen working together - not princess messaging her sister to meet her at starbucks for a 10 dollar coffee that sucks next to a 1 dollar dunkin donuts coffee - hehe.
As a rule, depleted plant is rebuilt with new technologies. Capital spending is really the critical mass in the economic growth process, generating all the things that make for rising wealth and living standards.
Then we have to stop this price control sillyness eh? Let oil get so damned high it becomes economical for clean coal and nuclear - as long as we try to fight the price mechanism with inflation fighting we don't make progress eh? |
