XKEM.035 From another board XKEM rev potential.Read bold.
investorshub.com
Posted by: r7315
In reply to: ruterstock who wrote msg# 675881 Date:7/22/2006 3:27:52 PM
Post #of 675908
FWIW, XKEM rev potential...
from poster on XKEM board...
Posted by: Valis
In reply to: None Date:7/22/2006 12:25:13 PM
Post #of 29041
\\\\\\ XKEM's REAL VALUE //////
Please read and critique this as necessary. I wanted to write this to help long termers keep their eyes on the prize, and to give new investors an idea of what they have invested in.
We know the production facility they have now is capable of supplying 100,000 patients. So let's break that down. You can make 3 350mg pills per gram of API (the finished material to be put into capsules), and about 3,000 per kilogram. So let's say that the facility they have now produces 33 kilograms of API everyday to make 100,000 pills for the 100,000 sufferers.
100,000 x $24 per box = 2,400,000 a month
= 28,800,000 per year
Net income on 28,800,000 should be about 20%, or 5,800,000. Divide that by by the O/S of 1,400,000,000 (yikes!) and you get .004 cents EPS. Taking a common multiplier of other pharm companies of EPS x 15, you can say the share price should be at least .062 . That doesn't take into account the potential for explosive growth in this company.
Let's look at the near future.
Steve Burg stated that the new/planned plant would be able to produce 300 kilograms of API every day. You can make roughly three 350mg capsules from a gram, that gives you 3,000 pills for every kilo, and adds up to 900,000 pills to account for the 300 kilograms.
900,000 x $24 per box = 21,600,000 per month
= 259,200,000 a year
Combined revenue = 288,000,000 a year
288,000,000 revenue x 20% margin = 57,600,000 net income
57,600,000 / 1,400,000,000 shares = .044 EPS
.044 EPS x 15 EPS multiplier = .66 PPS !
This is not that far off people! And let us not forget other potential drugs Pandey and Co have in the pipeline.
One thing my calculations did not account for, is the number of child doses being produced. It does not matter with the second factory, since we know the API output rather than the level of patient support. Since I had to assume the API output based on 100,000 patient number, the revenue could actually be 10-20% lower based on the potential for large amounts of child doses.
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