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Strategies & Market Trends : Classic TA Workplace

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To: skinowski who wrote (134662)	7/22/2006 7:46:04 PM
From: Moominoid	Read Replies (2) of 209892

There was the one day rally which pushed the stoch above 20 and so the model switches from persistent oversold to long. But then no follow through and a decline for two days in the market. So that caused the losing streak (prices rose a little for the two days before the big rally). I've tried various more sophisticated models and though they fit the data better they don't seem to be more use for trading. At least I can't figure out how to use them for trading and get a higher return :) (statistical significance doesn't equal trading usefulness!). So I am left trying to find various diagnostics to determine when the persistent oversold/overbought states are likely to end. It only matters when they end in explosive rallies or crashes... most of the time the initial move is not so big and so is not important. There doesn't seem to be anything 100% reliable. Which isn't a surprise. Anyway, I now have a far more powerful set of trading tools than I had before.... The trick now is using them properly.

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