I did a search for "long-term stock market timing hulbert" and found this interesting article that quotes Mark Hulbert
businessweek.com
We asked The Hulbert Financial Digest (703 683-5905), which tracks investment newsletters, to measure market-timing advice tailored to mutual-fund investors. In all, publisher Mark Hulbert identified 25 newsletters with 32 portfolios, since some newsletters have more than one timing model.
Hulbert's conclusion: None of the newsletter timers beat the market. For the 10 years that ended Dec. 31, the timers' annual average total returns ranged from 16.9% to 5.84%. The average return was 11.06%. During the same period, the Standard & Poor's 500-stock index earned 18.06% annually, and the Wilshire 5000 Value-Weighted Total Return Index, a broader measure of market performance, 17.57%.
Being a top rated timer can be much like winning a contest for the best smelling old shoes.
Mark Hulbert doesn't follow Don Wolanchuk (a friend of mine) but the same article says of Don "Another reason for the timers' poor results is that they err on the side of bears. One who hasn't is Don Wolanchuk, who was named top timer for 1997 by Timer Digest. Wolanchuk says that except for a few brief periods, he has been bullish for 10 years. According to Timer Digest, Wolanchuk's timing returns work out to 20.2% a year for the eight years ending in 1997, vs. 13.5% for the S&P 500. Wolanchuk delivers advice on an $8,000-a-year hotline or a $2.75-per-minute 900 number. "
Don has a forum here at SI Message 22645091 |
