Qualcomm Incorporated (QCOM) Message Board

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Technology Stocks : Qualcomm Incorporated (QCOM)

QCOM 173.41

-0.8%

11:41 AM EST

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To: pyslent who wrote (143956)	7/25/2006 1:12:40 PM
From: slacker711	Read Replies (2) of 152472

What time frame are you talking about? You do expect these percentages to ramp over time to near 100%, correct? Or are you projecting GSM to hang around at 70% unit share for the foreseable future? My numbers are for this year. Qualcomm's estimate for total handsets this year is 290 million. The total wireless market is likely to be a little above 950 million. Both of those numbers likely to be low, but 30% of units seems like a nice round estimate. The revenue number is a bit harder to estimate. Qualcomm has given a forecast for the fiscal year of $213. If that holds for the calendar year, you get an addressable market of $60.9 billion for the total CDMA/WCDMA market. I did some back of the envelope calculations a while back (based on Eric's posts on marketshare and ASP's) and came up with something like $130 billion for the entire wireless handset market. That means Q's TAM is currently about 45% of the wireless market. Of course, units and revenue should grow for the entire wireless market over the next few years, but that growth rate isnt going to be particularly fast. Qualcomm will experience pretty rapid growth over the next few years and then is going to need to figure out how to increase their total addressable market. Slacker

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