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Strategies & Market Trends : Moomin Valley (formerly Troll-free Zone)
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To: RealMuLan who wrote (1368)7/25/2006 4:12:07 PM
From: Moominoid  Read Replies (1) of 2852
 
Renaissance Technologies and SAC have returns of around 30% after their massive fees. Soros in the classic days got 35% and Druckenmiller more than 40% but then their fund got too big and things slowed down. The average fund in the hedge indices and funds of funds are not doing any better than the index recently. Most were caught in the May fall in the markets. EBB.AX which I have shares in performs almost exactly like the MSCI All Country Gross Index. My model is short for any endogneous type crash in the markets that has happened in the last 10 years. And even on 911 it was short but that wasn't hard to do, unless you thought that the markets couldn't go any lower and had gotten long. So far since June 30 it has beaten NDX by 14% (no leverage). That means it is up about 6%. My trouble in the past wasn't in finding things that made money but in hanging onto the profit. I would get more and more reckless. So I need a very disciplined system. This is always long or short and usually not ambiguous.

Still for example just now I sold QQQQ at 36.69 though the model is on long. Exited on intraday e-Wave etc. Looks like it was a good idea :) AMZN getting trashed... Don't think QQQQ will fall a lot given the model prediction... but might go sideways.
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