Qualcomm Incorporated (QCOM) Message Board

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Technology Stocks : Qualcomm Incorporated (QCOM)

QCOM 173.43

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3:59 PM EST

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To: slacker711 who wrote (143961)	7/25/2006 4:39:59 PM
From: Jim Mullens	Read Replies (1) of 152472

Slacker, TXN CC (trash talking CDMA) / Total Addressable Market (TAM)Discussion, and your reply to pyslent >> What time frame are you talking about? You do expect these percentages to ramp over time to near 100%, correct? Or are you projecting GSM to hang around at 70% unit share for the foreseable future? My numbers are for this year. Qualcomm's estimate for total handsets this year is 290 million. The total wireless market is likely to be a little above 950 million. Both of those numbers likely to be low, but 30% of units seems like a nice round estimate. Your response to Pyslent somewhat clarifies part of the ongoing TAM discussion as you were addressing only the current year with ...” Qualcomm's total addressable market from a unit stand point will be about about 30% of the total and somewhere between 40-50% from a revenue stand point.” However, it appears that we still have a definitional problem as to the meaning of Total Addressable Market. As mobile wireless moves from 2G ( wherein major governmental agencies / regulators restricted the deployment of CDMA technology) to 3G (which for the most part has removed those restrictions) my definition of Qualcomm’s Total Addressable Market (TAM) would include all current wireless subscribers and those potential new subscribers that can afford to purchase a phone / service contract. Therefore, all the current mobile wireless 2.5+ billion subs (?) plus new adds will become potential users of 3G devices over the next five plus year’s and thus represent Qualcomm’s TAM. Of course, it will take time to convert all of the current GSM subs to WCDMA (3GSM). Perhaps when you state—this year’s “ Qualcomm's total addressable market from a unit stand point will be about about 30%”, you are referring to the “capture rate” or the “penetration rate” of the TAM. And, the Qualcomm “capture rate” will be higher from a revenue stand point (vs units) because of the significantly higher handset ASPs for 3G devices over their 2G counterparts.

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