When i put on my imagination glasses, i can more easily see a deal with the shia that neutralizes the shiaa crescent extending from iran thru iraq, syria, gulf states and lebanon. Then both the west and shiaa can concentrate on al quaeda and then on making FAS somehow successful.
Apparently you've had your coffee this morning (I'm just working on my first cup so my thoughts may not be so clear.. ;0)
I definitely agree that there is an opportunity to isolate Ahmadinejad and the IRGC cabal currently ruling Iran. The key goal, IMO, must be to discredit Ahmadinejad's policies, without making an enemy of the Iranian people overall. There is just too much potential for societal and political moderation within Iran for us to squander it by applying pressure against that government with a "broad brush".
I still say that Bush/Blair.. and the rest of the international community are missing the opportunity to reach out to the Iranian people. They must continue to speak PAST Ahmadinejad's regime, and directly to the Iranians themselves. We must assure the Iranian people that we want to welcome them back to the international community, but we just have this major problem with their current government and his apocalyptic Mahdist agenda. I just believe this is an opportunity that has continuously been missed by the present administration.
But that being said, we can't ignore the evidence that Ahmadinejad and the IRGC cohorts were/are supporting Al Qai'da to some extent, if only to maintain strife and turmoil in Iraq. They are also supporting Muqtada Al-Sadr and his Mahdi army.
We see evidence of Ahmadinejad's willingness to support Sunni/Salafist terrorist groups by his patronage of Hamas (a branch of the Muslim Brotherhood). By controlling the level of violence perpetrated by both religious militant sects, he's able, IMO, to "tune" up or down the levels of violence.
Some may believe this theory to be utterly ridiculous since why would he support groups that attack Shi'a. But I think some of it might be due to the fact that the Shi'a that are being attacked are Arabs, not Persians, so he's not particularly concerned. I think he'd like to eliminate all Arab influence over Shi'a holy sites in Iraq and by instigating sectarian war between the two religious denominations, he increases the influence of Persian shi'a.
So when you mention the Shi'a concentrating upon Al Qai'da, I think we have to take into account these factors of IRGC involvement with Al Qai'da and what they hope to achieve.
Hawk |
