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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory

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To: orkrious who wrote (66796)	7/26/2006 10:48:25 AM
From: ild	Read Replies (1) of 110194

pm sentiment update -- trotsky, 10:14:07 07/26/06 Wed surprisingly, traders remained unconvinced even yesterday. the XAU put/call volume ratio clocked in at a super-heavy 2.31, iow, the pessimism of option traders has actually been growing rather then receding. likewise, the Rydex pm fund suffered yet another small outflow, which pushed the CF ratio to a fresh 3-year low. i.e., it's now back at levels last seen in 2003, in fact it's closing in on 2003's low point. the remarkable thing is that bearish sentiment has intensified so much in spite of the fact that the XAU is about 90% above its lows of May 2005. while the short term trend remains unconvinving thus far and arguably the charts look at best ambiguous with a bearish bias, it is still unusual to see sentiment deteriorate so much this early in a purported down trend. this is the equivalent of everybody calling the 1994 dip in the stock market the beginning of a major bear trend. come to think of it, back in '94, everybody DID call for a major bear trend to have begun. voy.com

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