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Strategies & Market Trends : Bonds, Currencies, Commodities and Index Futures

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To: Patrick Slevin who wrote (11621)	7/26/2006 7:09:18 PM
From: Moominoid	Read Replies (2) of 12411

Check out Michael Alexander on SafeHaven for a recent uptodate discussion of the K-Cycle. His explanations made more sense to me than any of the other stuff I read over the years. The Kondratieff is not a fixed period cycle. Very stochastic maybe 50-60 years long - the current Kondratieff is the longest ever, but then the business cycle too seems to have gotten longer over time. Don't know much about neural nets.... my observations on trying to find trading models are that the models that are useful for trading are not the ones that fit the data best by traditional criteria like maximum likelihood or least squares.

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