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Politics : Politics for Pros- moderated

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From: LindyBill	7/27/2006 12:20:02 AM
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The Nasrallah Blues By Captain Ed on Israel and Palestinians Haaretz reports that Israel has penetrated Hezbollah communications, and Sheikh Hassan Nasrallah has quite a different spin on events internally than externally. While issuing public statements full of bombast and dire predictions for Israelis, his private communications acknowledges the shock of Israeli military action has taken a toll on operational capability and morale: "An Israel Defense Forces analysis of the messages transmitted by Hezbollah Secretary General Hassan Nasrallah to his men during the fighting in Lebanon reveals a slightly different tone from the one he took in three public television interviews in the same period and in an interview with the Lebanese newspaper A-Safir. ... Nasrallah admits that his organization is having morale problems and says his group will receive support and encouragement. He adds that not only Hezbollah, but also Israel, has been badly hit. He also complains frequently that the Arab states have deserted Hezbollah and the Lebanese and are not helping them against Israel." This isn't much of a surprise, except for the speed in which Israel has tapped into Hezbollah's internal communications. Nasrallah admitted that he didn't anticipate the overwhelming Israeli response, a miscalculation that certainly has contributed to the declining morale in his organization. After all, Nasrallah made this sound like a milk run, and now the jihadis have another Israeli invasion on their hands. It also sounds like Nasrallah had to make an accounting of his actions in order to convince his men to continue their fight. Having a commander communicate an apology of this sort indicates a growing dissatisfaction with leadership in the ranks. Nasrallah so far has done nothing to convince anyone that he has a grasp of either strategy or tactics. He has proven that he has no understanding of his enemy, nor much of his putative allies in the region, almost all of whom have declined to rush to his side in this fight. Nasrallah had better have a victory to show them soon, or he may find himself replaced with wiser counsel.

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