<< If Renovis' NXY-059 drug receives marketing approval and the company manages to gain 25% market share, >>
That's one concept I do not understand. I don't see 25% market share, other than on the way up, if approved, and then again on the way down, when something better is introduced...and that would be several years into NXY-059's life span. With tPA the only approved option, and safe for a tiny percentage of stroke victims, even with marginal efficacy--unless someone can identify the likely nonresponders and exclude them (and I wouldnt count on AZ to identify that population)--NXY-059 will be given for lack of anything else. Even when a better thrombolytic comes out--DSPA or Viprinex--this would still be the only downstream, neuroprotectant option.
If the trial fails, then the market share will be...zero.
But if it succeeds, even if there is some formulary resistance by insurors, it is hard for me to imagine less than 50% peak penetration in the US. The safety has appeared impeccable, so there is no risk-benefit downside, other than to the pocketbook.
Harry
NeuroInvestment |
