Analysts: Lebanon conflict could widen
Thursday, July 27, 2006 · Last updated 1:48 a.m. PT
By CHARLES J. HANLEY
AP SPECIAL CORRESPONDENT
Bad as it is, the Lebanon conflict could widen and worsen the longer it goes on, U.S. congressional analysts warn in an in-depth analysis of the crisis.
Open war between Israel and Syria will grow more likely, and Lebanon's old civil-war rivalries might re-ignite, the Congressional Research Service writes. Oil prices could spike, and the U.S. homeland will have to guard against new terror threats, says the report "Israel-Hamas-Hezbollah: The Current Conflict."
The 41-page document, to be updated periodically as events unfold, is a briefing paper for Congress members and staff on the 2-week-old war that exploded with waves of Israeli air attacks on Lebanon and Hezbollah rocket salvoes falling on Israel after the Shiite Muslim militia killed three Israeli soldiers and seized two others in a cross-border raid.
More than 400 people, mostly civilians, have been killed in Lebanon thus far, and more than 40 Israelis have died, mostly soldiers.
The nonstop Israeli air and artillery bombardment appears not to have significantly reduced the arsenal of the Syrian-supported Hezbollah, since on Wednesday the Lebanese guerrillas fired one of their heaviest barrages yet, 119 rockets, into northern Israel. Syria's apparent continued resupply of Hezbollah could prove a flash point in the coming days or weeks, the congressional analysts warn.
Many believe this Syrian connection "was an important factor in encouraging Hezbollah leaders to initiate large-scale border and rocket attacks," says the report, posted Tuesday on the Internet.
Syria, still technically at war with Israel, may be playing a "dangerous game."
"Some analysts believe that the prospect of open war between Syria and Israel grows more likely the longer the current conflict continues," the researchers write.
Syria, at the same time, may be key to quelling the hostilities.
The crisis "increases the possibility that the United States, after shunning Syria for several years, may have to deal with Damascus at some point in an effort to contain escalating violence," the report says.
If the conflict drags on, the impact on Lebanon's political structure, a fragile accommodation among Sunni Muslims, Shiites, Christians, Druses and others, will be unpredictable.
Thus far, Lebanese generally appear to support Hezbollah under the punishing Israeli bombing. But "the prospect of renewed sectarian conflict in Lebanon itself is a possibility," the congressional analysts say.
"Hezbollah's unilateral decision to attack Israel, dragging the whole of Lebanon into a conflict many groups did not desire, may lead to the arming of factions politically opposed to Hezbollah."
The country's devastating 1975-1990 civil war, which "turned Lebanon into a breeding ground for terrorism, and periodically threatened to spill over into adjacent areas of the Middle East, illustrated the dangers to U.S. interests posed by instability in this small country," the report notes.
The current crisis also threatens to spill far beyond Lebanon.
The benchmark crude-oil price, sensitive to Middle East upheavals, soared to a new high above $76 a barrel after the conflict erupted. "Prices can fluctuate greatly on developments in Israel and Lebanon," the Washington report says.
In the United States, federal authorities on July 16 issued a threat bulletin saying "vigilance is urged" for any possible terrorist backlash because of strong official U.S. support for Israel. The researchers note the FBI is reportedly "re-energizing investigations of known and suspected Hezbollah agents and supporters residing in the U.S."
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