W-CDMA is absolutely not GSM.
Mq, I hate to interfere in this conversation, but you have made a glaring error I feel compelled to correct, though I suspect you may have erred deliberately in order to needle TJ.
I have kept one eye on the many QCOM-will-win-the-IPR battle-QCOM is oversold-viva QCOM! messages while the other eye firmly keeps track of the plunged share price. As a result, I am having difficulty seeing eye to eye with you on these matters.
Nokia granted Q a presumably royalty free GSM license when it "capitulated" [now there's a misnomer for you] to Q and obtained its WCDMA license so that NOK could implement UMTS, the near-universally preferred iteration of WCDMA. And it absolutely, positively requires GSM. I guarantee it, double your money back.
iec.org
Assuming NOK has foundational GSM IPR in place [though it may be long in tooth], and there is no Q/NOK deal, how will Q sell UMTS chips? How will NOK sell handsets?
If Q needs NOK's GSM IPR, it seems to me that both have each other over a barrel. Now, we all know that Q claims NOK is infringing on Q's own GSM IPR, but that battle won't be resolved for a long time. In the meantime, 4/07 looms closer and closer.
If Q is able to trade its own GSM IPR for the IPR it needs to implement UMTS, perhaps Q will have the advantage. But to imply this is a given is a bit of a stretch. And if this tactic does not work, the share price will be in the 20s, if we're lucky.
In the meantime, the cost advantages of cheap GSM phones, along with the fact that CDMA phones are a royal pain to certify for network use, have resulted in at least two substantial networks giving it up, not to mention NOK abandoning CDMA, a bitter blow. Moreover, Q's flunky's hob-nail boots tactics get the 802.20 standards process derailed. And don't forget heel-nipping BRCM.
You may also notice that the Koreans would love dearly to be rid of Q, whom they view as a blood-sucking leech, as many others do as well. In short, like many other companies which have been able to impose their will on a market without too much restraint [MSFT comes to mind], Q is viewed as a pariah. If it cannot win Holy Wars version 2.0, it will be devoured.
In view of all this, I have a difficult time being optimistic. The market seems to share my views. |
