Chris Parker's view on Saturday morning regarding Wave approaching South American coast sees possibility of reaching TD and TS status soon:
WAVE 43W very interesting...cluster of strong squalls 200 mi W of WAVE yesterday is now 300 mi W of WAVE, and should bring squalls to SE Caribbean tomorrow night into Mon31.
WAVE now has surface LO 8N / 43W, with moderate convective squalls near & just W of center, is in low-shear environment, and will probably develop into a TD before the end of this weekend.
Track & timing will depend on intensity / organization. If this remains a WAVE or weak TD (Tropical Depression), it should track W@20, passing SE Caribbean Mon31 night. If it strengthens into a TS (Tropical Storm), it should move more slowly, due to lighter upper-level winds, and more to the WNW or NW, passing near NE Caribbean late TurAug1 or Wed2. It's not possible to say which is more likely, but I'll go with the latter, as I believe RIDGE weakens, and system should slow down some tomorrow & Mon31. However, there may be an area of higher shear just E of E Caribbean, and this should prevent this system from becoming a Hurricane, and generally retard intensification. |
