I work in the Internet industry and talk to web developers constantly. Shockwave is not near the top of their list of interesting technologies that can improve their websites. I am constantly on the web and I saw more Shockwave sites in early 1996 than I do now. The question is not how many clients have the plugin (signing a deal and getting the plugin bundled with AOL disks or Macs makes a nice press release, but doesn't mean anyone actually uses Shockwave), but how many websites want to incorporate Shockwave and are willing to buy and learn Director. One of the victims of the web's success has been the CDROM based content creators who were devoted Director users (and justifiably so as the tool was/is the best for CDROM based delivery). The number of CDROM's produced and the number of companies that produce them are significantly down from 1995. Likewise, the sales of Director for CDROM production purposes has to be down. Shockwave may have enticed some Director users to stay with Director when they decided to do web development, but it did not appeal to enough new users to keep up Director's growth. If it had, Macromedia would not be in the situation it has found itself for the last year.
All that said, I think that Dreamweaver could be the next big hit product that Macromedia needs. It is built from the ground up for the web developer, not an older tool repurposed for a new user. It also leverages DHTML rather than a proprietary plugin (the opinion of web developers in focus groups is "plug-ins s**k, except for RealAudio"). Macromedia needs a hit to grow (and software companies are like sharks, they have to keep moving forward or they die).
I tend to stay away from the "puts/calls, quick flip, hope for an acquisition" type of investing that seems to be the style of those on this Forum. I guess I was asleep in business school when they explained how you make money off these things. With software companies other than the few very large ones, you'd be better off gambling in Vegas.
I believe in Macromedia's long term prospects. Director, Freehand, Splash, and Authorware are solid products (the goal is to be like Adobe PhotoShop, be so good that you dominate the category, creating a lead that acts as a barrier to entry for potential competitors). Some of the recent new products (xRes, Extreme 3D, Backstage) have not taken the market by storm. I think Dreamweaver could be a solid win.
Competing in the software business is like being a dog in a dogsled team. If your not the lead dog, the view is always the same.
Best of luck,
Larry C |
