Bob Brinker: Market Savant & Radio Host Message Board

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Strategies & Market Trends : Bob Brinker: Market Savant & Radio Host

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From: stockalot	7/31/2006 6:57:13 PM
	Read Replies (2) of 42834

Math, Why don't you switch clients and alibi for your other client "Dija" and leave the convicted multialias poster out of it for a bit. For days now Dija has been whining and has at least a dozen times called me a liar when I explained that I had read that Hulbert's work had demonstrated that Brinker's timing was better if applied to the broad index than based on the performance of Brinker's underperforming fund picks. He went on and on telling me how big a liar I was. He claimed that Hulbert was talking about averaging in bond funds etc etc. I assured him that I remembered what I read and Shres jumped in and again repeated the harassment as though I was some sort of liar. My point was that if indeed there is something of late vintage where Brinker is rated high in Hulbert's ratings based on something he did not recommend--investing in the Wilshire 5000 and NOT using his mutual funds, it is consistant with Hulberts study of his long term record. His fund picking sucks. His timing works out better than most only if you leave out the QQQs. And of course the huge hole in any claim of performance as you have occasionally agreed is that for his best portfolio in performance the "aggressive" portfolio I he recommended and has as his largest long term holding for those investors an 18 to 32% stake in the QQQS bought around 80 bucks. But here is Hulbert's comments on Brinker's fund picking ability from the May 2005 newsletter. " Writing in the May 05 Hulbert Financial Digest Hulbert gave this information on Brinker's stock picking vs investing in the Wilshire 5000 using his timing. "Consider the gain of a hypothetical portfolio that switched between shares of the Wilshire 5000 index and cash since the beginning of 1987 according to the market-vs-cash allocation of Brinker’s “Aggressive Growth” portfolio. This hypothetical portfolio gained 13.3% annualized through 3/31/05, beating the 11.4% annualized the Wilshire gained over the same period. . Brinker’s fund selections on average have lagged the Wilshire. The HFD reports a 12.1% annualized gain for his “Aggressive” portfolio, which is 1.2 percentage points per year less than what this portfolio would have made if each of its funds had performed as well as the Wilshire during the times they were owned. " And he added a disclaimer to this message saying that he was not counting the disasterous long term holding of the QQQQs. The QQQs bought in the 80s in Oct 2000 for up to 1/3 of an aggressive portfolio and held to this day, although hidden, renders the above exercise rather silly and meaningless.

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