Gartner expects Nikon to ship 10 immersion lithography systems in 06
Tuesday, 01 August 2006
FabTech
According to the latest Gartner Dataquest review of the semiconductor lithography tool market, Nikon is expected to ship 10, 193nm ArF immersion lithography systems in 2006. The market research firm believes Nikon shipped its first ‘production' tool in 1Q06 as confirmed by Nikon in a press release during SPIE conference at the end of February 2006. Nikon figures for shipments in its first quarter calendar year that started in April 06 was noted for showing no immersion tools being shipped in that period. The company had previously stated that it expected to ship 9 immersion tools for its 2006/7 financial year, indicating that Nikon may well ship more immersion tools than it is currently projecting.
ASML had also recently guided on 193nm ArF immersion tool shipments as part of its 2Q06 financial review, confirming that it had shipped 8 systems in the quarter making it a total of 21 to date. Several financial analysts have since reported that they believe ASML shipped 2 advanced production tools (AT: 1700i) immersion tools in the quarter as part of 8 in total. One system was reported to have been shipped to Samsung while the other was shipped to Toshiba.
Canon the other optical lithography tool supplier has yet to officially ship any immersion tools and is not expected to unveil its system until early 2007, according to Klaus Rinnen of Gartner Dataquest and principal lithography analyst at the market research firm.
Rinnen also noted that the majority of immersion systems so far shipped have primarily been R&D tools rather than production systems. However, Cymer the dominant ArF laser light source supplier noted only last week that many of the immersion tools shipping in the 2H06 period were destined for production ramps at the 65nm node and below, especially for NAND Flash memory production.
Unit sales of i-line, KrF and ArF both wet and dry are expected to increase strongly in 2006 compared to the previous year. Rinnen pointed out that 2006 is a year of fab capacity expansions compared to a more restrained 2005. With strong spending this year by memory chip manufacturers, i-line shipments will remain robust, slightly outperforming more advanced 248nm KrF sales, which Rinnen projects will see units sales of 225, a 13.1 percent increase over 2005.
ArF shipments are also set to rise for both ‘dry' and immersion tools as leading edge chip manufacturers required 193nm dry systems for 65nm node production and immersion for continued pre-production qualification and further R&D programs. Rinnen has raised his 193nm shipment projections for 2006 to 135 units, up from 104 previously for this year.
In total, Gartner Dataquest is now forecasting that stepper unit sales will reach 624 in 2006, a 16.4 percent increase over 2005.
In typical Rinnen ‘style' there was a couple of downsides to current and future sales growth. Firstly, he highlighted that the major foundries were seeing a softening in demand, potentially leading to tool delivery push-outs. However, Rick Tsia, President of TSMC and the largest pure-play foundry specifically stated in its 2Q06 conference call with analysts that lithography tool deliveries in particular would not be affected by any push-out plans.
Next year's outlook is good but not as good as this year, Rinnen outlined, citing a period of tool ordering digestion in the 1H07 with orders improving in the 2H07 period. However, this would not be enough to see sales pass 2006 levels. |
