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Strategies & Market Trends : The Residential Real Estate Crash Index

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To: mishedlo who wrote (58826)8/2/2006 11:31:16 AM
From: Don EarlRead Replies (6) of 306849
 
RE: "As for home prices, you have to be nuts to think they are still rising in aggregate."

I have yet to see a single analyst remark on skyrocketing building material costs being a factor in driving up housing prices. Most of the white collar analysts wouldn't know oriented strand board from a checker board. In 2003, OSB went from $4.99 a sheet to $21.99 a sheet, and has more or less stabilized in the $15 area since then. On average, building materials are up around 50% in the past 3 years.

The math is simple for anyone except Wall Street analysts. If the cost goes up, the price goes up. The story is the same for land. The turn key parcels with all utilities are gone. The cost to develop raw land is high. The cost goes up, the price goes up.

The only thing the bubble heads have been looking at is the bottom line. 99% of the bubble heads don't have a fuzzy clue where the bottom line came from. Yes, prices have started to flatten out over the past year or so. Duh? That's because costs have started to flatten out over the past year or so.

Get a clue. Until and unless, costs come down, prices will stay up. No one is going to build you a house for free, let alone build it for you at a loss.
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