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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis

SOXX 314.52

-0.6%

Dec 11 4:00 PM EST

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To: Donald Wennerstrom who wrote (31857)	8/2/2006 1:21:47 PM
From: etchmeister	Read Replies (1) of 95567

We will get another data point in a couple of weeks to see what the July numbers are. I believe we are getting very close to the peak - LRCX as well as NVLS stated that second half could be up slightly (besides there is question if orders are pushed out in Q4 which could mean numbers for 2006 and 2007 could change). Even with stronger second half bookings will start trending downwards - perhaps at end of Q3 - perhaps to the March 2006 level. We will probably see a "cyclical" slowdown and than off to the races again. To me a repeat of Y2K when bookings continued to increase is really not desirable IMHO because the market will perceive it as a precursor of capacity glut. Without looking at a chart NVLS seems to be firming up - used to be one of the weakest within the group but to me it looks like it is firming. memory spending should favor both LRCX as well as VSEA - and there is more talk about memory makers eventually changing over to copper which should favor NVLS. 2006 JAN 1226 FEB 1293 MAR 1385 APR 1604 MAY 1619 JUN 1746

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