Leaked memo: Civil war most likely outcome in Iraq
Outgoing British ambassador to Iraq also predicts the country will break up along sectarian lines.
Terrorism and Security:
posted August 3, 2006 at 11:50 a.m.
By Tom Regan | csmonitor.com
csmonitor.com
William Patey, the outgoing British ambassador to Iraq, has warned British Prime Minister Tony Blair that civil war is a more likely outcome in that country than democracy.
The BBC reports that the confidential leaked memo also predicted the breakup of Iraq along ethnic lines into three separate countries. While "not hopeless," Mr. Patey wrote, it will remain a "difficult and messy" situation for the next five to ten years.
Patey wrote: "The prospect of a low intensity civil war and a de facto division of Iraq is probably more likely at this stage than a successful and substantial transition to a stable democracy.
"Even the lowered expectation of President Bush for Iraq – a government that can sustain itself, defend itself and govern itself and is an ally in the war on terror – must remain in doubt."
In a comment that has been made several times in past few years by both British and US officials, Mr. Patey said "the next six months are crucial."
BBC correspondent Paul Wood said although the document does not contradict earlier statements by the British government that civil war is not imminent in Iraq, "it is a devastating official assessment of the prospects for a peaceful Iraq, and stands in stark contrast to the public rhetoric."
The Guardian reports that Patey also said the Mahdi Army, loyal to radical cleric Muqtada al-Sadr, must not be allowed to turn into Hizbullah.
Talking about the Shiite militias blamed for many killings, Mr Patey said: "If we are to avoid a descent into civil war and anarchy then preventing the Jaish al Mahdi [the Mahdi Army] from developing into a state within a state, as Hizbullah has done in Lebanon, will be a priority."
The BBC reported it has also learned from military sources that British troops in Basra are planning to dramatically step up operations against Shiite gunmen. Mr Patey urges the government to ensure that Iraqi troops are brought into this effort as the British forces "can't confront the militias alone".
The Associated Press reports that while the British Foreign Office does not comment on leaked memos, it said Patey had made similar comments in a radio interview last week.
But the Foreign Office said Patey had also acknowledged at the time he did not feel any sense of "hopelessness or despair" about the future of Iraq and that he believed the Iraqi government was capable of improving conditions.
"Everyday the capacity of the Iraqi security forces to manage their own security is growing," a Foreign Office spokeswoman told The Associated Press, on condition of anonymity in line with policy.
The leak of the memo comes a day after Mr. Blair gave a major speech in Los Angeles where he called for a complete "rethink of our policy towards the Middle East." The Daily Telegraph reports Blair said that the West was involved in an "elemental struggle" that will shape its future, but this struggle cannot be resolved by force alone.
Unless the West reappraised its strategy, revitalized the global agenda on poverty and climate change and resolved to "bend every sinew of our will to making peace between Israel and Palestine, we will not win," [Blair said].
The Prime Minister said the battle of ideas must be joined to make sure the forces of moderate Islam prevailed over reactionary and terrorist elements.
"We will not win the battle against this global extremism unless we win it at the level of values as much as force - unless we show we are even-handed, fair and just in our application of those values to the world," he told a 2,000 strong audience at the World Affairs Council, in Los Angeles.
The prime minister's office, however, denied that the speech amounted to "an admission that the Iraq war had been a mistake." But, the Telegraph reports, it is likely to be seen as an "implicit criticism" of Bush's "insistence on using military force to crush militant Muslims and the way the 'road map' for the Middle East has been put on the back burner." The Times of London called the speech less a "valedictory address" than advice for the next American president.
The Telegraph also said that Blair's admission that force is not enough will be seen as his attempt to placate the growing number of critics in his cabinet and party who believe his policies on Iraq and Lebanon are wrong. Blair has faced accusations that "he is Mr Bush's poodle for refusing to call for an immediate Israeli cease-fire."
Sir Rodric Braithwaite (former chairman of Britain's Joint Intelligence Committee), in a commentary in the Financial Times, argues that Blair has done the most damage to Britain's policy in the Middle East since Anthony Eden and the Suez Crisis in 1956. [Editor's note: The original version misstated when Sir Braithwaite was chairman of the Joint Intelligence Committee.]
In the past 100 years – to take the highlights – we have bombed and occupied Egypt and Iraq, put down an Arab uprising in Palestine and overthrown governments in Iran, Iraq and the Gulf. We can no longer do these things on our own, so we do them with the Americans. Mr. Blair's total identification with the White House has destroyed his influence in Washington, Europe and the Middle East itself: who bothers with the monkey if he can go straight to the organ-grinder?
The Financial Times also reported that Thursday Blair used a press conference to "mount a vigorous defense" of his Mideast policies, and he denied reports of a major rift with his foreign secretary Margaret Beckett.
He again stressed the need for security for Israel in any settlement, condemning the comments earlier on Thursday from the Iranian president on the "elimination" of Israel as "deeply unhelpful". Israel has got to "be sure that whatever arrangements are in place guarantee that security for the medium and long term," he said.
Questioned on Iraq, Mr Blair played down leaked comments from [Patey] ... saying Britain would not be deterred by sectarian violence. The solution was to "stay the course, stand up for those people who want democracy, stand up for those people who are fighting sectarianism, stand up for a different vision of the Middle East based on democracy, liberty and the rule of law," he said.
The Daily Telegraph reports that in another move that has infuriated his party, Blair announced that he will still go on a three-week holiday starting this weekend, despite his cabinet and party being "in disarray." But his aides pointed out that he also went on holiday last year after the London bombings. However, critics rejoined that last July Mr. Blair had his party solidly behind him, which is not the case now.
Meanwhile, The Independent also reports that former Foreign Minister Jack Straw, who recently criticized Blair's position on Lebanon, was moved out of the position because "he had too many Muslims in his constituency."
Irwin Stelzer, an aide to Rupert Murdoch with close contacts in the Bush administration, said the Bush administration raised doubts about Mr Straw when he was foreign secretary, because of the high number of Muslims in his constituency. That raised questions over whether he was moved to please Washington. |
