It can't POSSIBLY be that useful! Nah, I think it's mostly common sense, but a lesson learned the hard way.
Despite the tendency for so many on SI to overtrade, it is a HUGE achievement to earn a few % over the averages over the long haul. And over the long haul, that's all it takes to turn a decent nest egg into investment capital.
In my experience, beating the averages by a few % can be achieved strictly by sector selection. Ignore the overall market as much as possible, except to determine net exposure levels. And monitor portfolio beta like a hawk.
As far as I'm concerned, nothing I've seen so far disputes the notion that a cyclical bear launched with the price highs set during the first week of the year in $NDX. You can choose your index of interest to show other peaks, but that was the speculative high, and the rational expectation would be for an above-average depth and duration bear. When we've got that, we can start talking about whether or not the secular bear is truly back.
Like many others on this thread, I'm remain exposed to homebuilding, and I'm building positions against construction suppliers (capex, steel, concrete, lumber), the consumer (retail, restaurants, autos), emerging markets, techland (semiconductor equipment, semiconductors, software), and startng to tiptoe into the brokers.
The worst part of my shortfolio, as usual, is where I've tried to fade old favorite momo names that appeared to be breaking down.
BC |
