IMF model on dollar value is estimate - spokesman Thursday, August 03, 2006 10:18:42 AM (GMT-06:00) Provided by: Reuters News
WASHINGTON, Aug 3 (Reuters) - The International Monetary Fund's currency model on the U.S. dollar is an estimate and not a forecast, an IMF spokesman said on Thursday, referring to an IMF report last week that said the dollar was overvalued by 15 to 35 percent.
The July 28 annual review by the IMF of the U.S. economy estimated the dollar was "significantly" overvalued given the projected deterioration of U.S. net foreign liabilities.
"These are the values in terms of the estimates of our valuation that emerge from our model based on fundamentals," IMF spokesman Masood Ahmed told a regular press briefing quoting an interview overnight by IMF Managing Director Rodrigo Rato in Tokyo.
"Also, that doesn't necessarily mean that markets are going to follow the results of that model and in the short run we all know currencies are not predictable," he added.
In the IMF report, the fund said U.S. officials had cautioned that it was best left to markets to determine appropriate exchange rate levels.
The report, released late in the trading day, had no impact on the dollar, with analysts more focused on U.S. growth data and a Federal Reserve policy meeting on Aug. 8.
This week, new U.S. Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson reiterated the Bush administration's dollar policy, saying a strong dollar "was in our nation's interest and that currency values should be determined in open and competitive markets in response to underlying economic fundamentals."
Ahmed said the IMF's so-called Article IV economic reviews of its 184 member countries tried to be more candid and give additional details.
The move is in line with IMF reforms endorsed by member countries to strengthen the fund's monitoring of the world's largest economies. Any details in IMF Article IV staff reports are approved by the country because of the sensitive nature of some of the details.
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