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Biotech / Medical : CVTX - CV Therapeutics, Inc.

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From: idos	8/5/2006 6:14:48 AM
	of 411

CIBC on CVTX: On 8/03, CVTX reported a 2Q06 loss per share of $1.59, above our $1.41 loss est. Revs were $6.9M vs our $13.2M est, based on Ranexa sales of $1.2M. Given reported scrips of 9.4K since launch, we est total Ranexa sales of $1.55M through June. Opex were $80.6M, slightly below our $77.6M est. CVTX reported that 2.3K cardiologists have already written scrips for Ranexa. Given an average of ~3 scrips/prescriber, we believe physicians will be cautious initially but will increase use as familiarity with Ranexa's clinical profile grows. In May, enrollment was completed in the MERLIN trial of Ranexa in ACS. Data is expected 1Q07. We believe results will confirm Ranexa's tolerable safety profile, leading to increased use in angina. Success on the primary endpoint is harder to handicap, in our view, given a lack of prior ACS data. We believe it is too early in Ranexa's launch to draw accurate conclusions regarding the drug's ultimate sales potential. We estimate Ranexa sales for angina will reach ~$350M in 2010. We believe low expectations for Ranexa may already be reflected in CVTX's current valuation.

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