<if you own the natural resource stocks we've been recommending, stick with them>
Clarification? Resources are up, some resource stocks aren't
So buy gold and oil the commodities. www.hbpfunds.com let you buy funds that hold oil and gold contracts, (maybe better than USO for an oil bull). The securities haven't been doing so well, Friday was awful for many silver majors (PMs) even as silver was up significantly on the week, so buy SLV not equities! There was no leverage this week in my account.
Only PAAS was up more than SLV, thats not leverage:
finance.yahoo.com
A silver PM basket would have underperformed SLV
One day this Middle East conflict may blow up, if it happens overnight Asia will tank first and the exit door will be slammed shut. (Due to the time difference, the daytime in ME is night here, so markets can't respond in real-time, say if Syria joins in or Hezbollah rockets hit an apartment buildings in downtown Tel Aviv.
Hable says get out of all stocks including PMs:
hable.ca
Look at the charts, he's right that this rally is tired, one could say that is the summer weak volumes.
Maybe you're right, maybe not. Some people are sitting on alot of gains...I don't share your unbridles enthusiasm for natural resources. I like a nice strong solid trend and we ain't got that here.
Congratz on ERF. Did you listen to Ross Healy on Rob TV this week? He has some good ideas, like shorting ACE (you play consumer downside, energy upside impact on airlines).
Ross told people to stay as far away from trusts as possible, thats why I sold. Let me know when they include Capex in their payout ratios. I saw a brokerage report where 95% of the trusts have payout ratios over 100%, many in the 135% range, once CAPEX is included.
So when does that Ponzi scheme end (yep, they fund CAPEX with new units by and large, but use debt and credit facilities too)? I'd say a market pullback where they can't sell units. The canary might have been the CNE.UN offering last week. In the past offerings sold out in minutes, this time it was still open an hour after offering opened according to the folks on $trsts.
Your ERF sold over 4m units (C$253m) in March 06 to do just that, pay down the credit facility (which is the money pot they use for CAPEX). Now if the NR said they neede the cash to pay distributions that would be just too close to the truth.
micro.newswire.ca
Sure, maybe this weak rally is summer demand you say,
1. CNDX fell off a cliff in May and never recovered:
stockcharts.com
2. NYSE shows what volume trends look like in a market that isn't so dependent on marginal liquidity:
stockcharts.com
But even if it is summer weakness, in September, the Iranian nuclear issues, Iraq, US deficits, the US housing crash and consumer impacts, Israel/Hezbollah friction, bird flu will all still be with us. Thats also why this rally is so weak.
I just don't want to wake up one morning with my account down 25%, and it will take oil and gold shares with it. The trade's you're in at the time will likely drop too, just ecause it isn't an 'investment' doesn't mean you're immune. |
