Math,
Thak you for clarifying when the term bear was first used.
A counter-trend rally does not mean a bear has to be in place. The last few weeks have had some counter-trend rallies and it sure doesn't look, at least so far, like we are in a Bear Market.
Investing frequently is boring. In 2000, Bob was getting a lot of flack about being mostly out of the market. To me, in hindsight and having remained on the sidelines, it sure looks the Bob got bitten by the "High Tech MANIA Bug". The same bubble he warned about over and over.
Bob made what now looks like to good ( some will say great ) asset allocation decision in Jan 2000. However, his follow-up actions show he largely mis-understood the reasons, magnitude, and duration.
A question that will likely never be answered is:
How much of the Q debacle was poor data/model vs. Bob's ego to do something sensational. Bob's model for loonngg term trends might be OK overall, but it's not very accurate in how it's it's sub-components got used. Is that the model, or the interpretation of the model?
In 23142, you wrote: On the other hand, if I had been a certain tireless and prolific Brinker-detractor, I would have said "We Know." 
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