Hi Logan, That was great research work in post 3925. Mr. Gumport now has a research report at the Lehman site dated Sept. 23, reiterating that RMTR is on target. Interesting that he thinks Hitachi will be not far behind Rohm to deliver. Some other interesting stuff...Here is most of it (I didn't see a copyright, so assume it's okay to post: (By M. Gumport at www.lehman.com)
* FIRST COMMERCIAL FRAM SALES FROM ROHM; 10 KEY EVENTS ON TRACK; $20-30 YEAR 2000 PRICE TARGET REAFFIRMED.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RAMTRON CONFIRMS PROGRESS TOWARDS FIRST OF 10 KEY BENCHMARKS. Yesterday, Ramtron confirmed it has made the first commercial shipments of FRAM (ferroelectric RAM) produced by its foundry Rohm. We understand they shipped a few thousand pieces to three customers on 9/19/97. While amounts are insignificant, the news that Rohm is on track towards FRAM commercialization is important. We still expect the first parts to appear on distributor shelves at the end of 1997, and expect Ramtron to order at least 1 mil. Units in 1Q98.
OTHER KEY BENCHMARKS STILL ON TARGET. 1) Rohm 16K FRAM commercial samples (accomplished), 2) Hitachi 64K FRAM commercial samples (early 4Q), 3) Smart-card win (1000's of units this year, a few million units next year; Cubic has already announced support), 4) One to two new FRAM licensing partners (1 is in our model this year; 3 seem likely within a year including SGS Thompson-STM-$92 5/16-1, 5) Initial results of 1Mbit FRAM designs from Fujitsu & Toshiba (Fujitsu 1st silicon due by year end), 6) Issuance of key EDRAM patents, 7) 16Mbit ESDRAM (enhanced sync DRAM) sampling, 8) Chipset and standards acceptance of 16Mbit ESDRAM spec., 9) New EDRAM partner and an EDRAM licensing program like Rambus'-RMBS-$57 7/16-NR, 10) Additional research coverage.
Also notable, we understand Hitachi's first deliveries are close behind Rohm's. Elsewhere, Digital Equipment Corp-DEC-40 15/16-2 and VLSI Technology-VLSI- 36 5/8-NR have already announced support for Ramtron's EDRAM (Enhanced DRAM). Look for a major ad campaign to start 10/13/97. We believe Japanese,Taiwanese and Korean companies persuaded the memory standards board to spend extra time recently considering an EDRAM standard. It has been confirmed that Via (a private Taiwanese chipset maker) is providing support for Ramtron's upcoming 16Mbit ESDRAM. According to internet chatter, Via has moved up to #2 in the chipset market at 14% market share. (Intel's-INTC-$96 3/8-1 Triton is the largest with 52% market share.) Further, according to the
same source, Via has been working with Compaq (CPQ-78 1/4-2.)
$20-30 YEAR 2000 PRICE TARGET MAINTAINED. We believe Ramtron can reach $10 by early 1998 and $14 within a year. Ramtron's FRAM (1996 $1.9 mil.,1997 $1.7 mil, 1998 at least $6.2 mil., 1999 $16.6 mil.) and EDRAM (1996 $16.0 mil.,1997 over $14.7 mil., 1998 $23.6 mil., 1999 $36.6 mil.) sales, both now in transition, should reach a combined quarterly sales rate of $20 mil. by late 1999. FRAMs in particular are highly proprietary and reflect Ramtron's $150 mil. investment in unique process capabilities. Some of the best chip makers
with the most proprietary processes are valued at well over $1 bil. with quarterly product sales of a little more than $20 mil. We increasingly believe that our valuation (a $20-30 year 2000 price target) is conservative.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Disclosure Legend: A-Lehman Brothers Inc. managed or co-managed within the past three years a public offering of securities for this company. B-An employee of Lehman Brothers Inc. is a director of this company. C-Lehman Brothers Inc. makes a market in the securities of this company. G-The Lehman Brothers analyst who covers this company also has a position in it securities |
