Total listings in Pinellas, Hillsborough and Pasco have hovered around 35,000 as monthly sales struggle to break 4,000. A year ago listings stood about 9,000, roughly 6,000 of which sold.
Tampa has roughly a 4 year backlog. Builders will have to cut back construction significantly. Now this is where it gets tricky......what percentage of employment is the construction industry? With Tampa, I suspect its an important metric in the job market but not to the point where it kills job growth. On the other hand, I suspect with places like Port Charlotte and south it plays a much bigger role......the more jobs lost, the smaller the demand for housing. That means it will take just that much longer to finish off the housing overhang. I think Florida in general is in for some slower growth for the next 2-4 years. I think SW Florida tbat slowdown will be six or more years. Now if that were repeated in every housing market in the country, the US would be in big trouble. Fortunately, that's not what's happening. In fact, in markets like LA, DC, and NYC prices are still going up just not has fast. And in places like Seattle and Portland, prices are going up double digits percentage.
The housing market isn't out of the woods yet but a soft landing looks probable if nothing changes dramatically in the next year. |
