Waiting for the big Kahuna Message Board

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Strategies & Market Trends : Waiting for the big Kahuna

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To: Moominoid who wrote (73548)	8/9/2006 3:07:03 PM
From: Rarebird	Read Replies (1) of 94695

No, I didn't mean it in that way. But the Bear has been lurking around for a while without creating much havoc yet. There was a radical shift in breadth beginning May 11, along with a sudden shift in the number of new lows vs new highs. Over the past few weeks, there has been a bit of a reprieve in that respect. However, I'm looking at 152 new 52 week lows on the NASDAQ here while CSCO is squeezing the shorts and the Nasdaq is (was) up 1%. The ^RUT and ^MID have both just turned negative here (Dance if you are Short!) and I get this eerie feeling that this market is being held up by a few threads (or illusions) that are about to break. There are so many ominious signs out there, I don't even know where to begin or end. In the most recent GDP report, business expenditures cooled rapidly as fixed investment rose only 2.7%, the slowest rate in over two years. Spending on equipment and software actually fell 1.0%, which was the weakest quarter in over three years. This suggests to me that the corporate sector has not quite taken the baton from the fatigued consumer. I think this is important because the widespread belief is that strong corporate spending will counteract the consumer-related weakness due to the faltering housing sector among other issues. This was my commentary this morning before the market opened: Message 22701436 And I issued a Red Light Alert over a week ago just for this moment: Message 22674489 I prefer Bull markets over Bear markets only because I will allow myself (at times) to go 100% long while in Bear Markets, I'll only go 25% short at most. So, I tend to make more money in Bull Markets. But I love Bear Markets too. There's money to be made in any market. And I have a very dark side so I like reading RealMan or Vito (I have him bookmarked.) I like human beings who have a tragic sensibility to them (not exclusively though). It's good to have fun and profit from different sides of the ledger. PS At the moment, I'm just 19% short (13% short the ^RUT, with 200% leverage and 6% short MDY); 81% cash.

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