Hey Jay.. Long time, no see.. Hope all has been well!!
Listen.. The United States economy has survived an Tech Equity Bubble, a terrorist attack.. a war in Afghanistan and Iraq, and high oil prices.
Yet, the US economy grew at 5.6%, which consequently assisted China in achieving its tremendous growth over the past year. We also have a very low unemployment rate, despite the fact that the US population now numbers 300 million people.
And instead of hyper-inflation and the world dumping US government treasuries, we're currently seeing the 10 year bond sell with a yield lower than the current Fed Funds rate, indicative of a tremendous demand for a limited of US debt.
And while the recent productivity reports are lower than previous ones, overall it has remained rather high, and certainly higher than Europe.
The oil market, based upon basis supply and demand principles, is probably overpriced by $20/barrel. And as US economic growth slows down to managable levels (assuming the Fed hasn't overshot and set us up for recession), China's growth is likely to moderate as well.
So I don't quite know where I've been too wrong, given what's occurred over the past 6 years here in the states.
But I would concur that the US real estate market has been in a bubble and I fear that it might not have the "soft-landing" the Fed intends. And this could have some serious repercussions for the overall economy.
But what things be like had the US not endured the kind of international turmoil we've seen over the past 6 years?
I'm just not convinced that the world has many attractive alternatives to investing in the US when it comes to "safe havens" for large capital inflows. I certainly wouldn't see China as a safe haven, given the political risk evident in that political-economic system.
Things certainly aren't perfect in the US economy long-term. But compared to the rest of the world, I don't think we're doing so badly.
But I'm happy and pleased that you're doing well.
Hawk |
