Hulbert's Top Timer Survey
Barrons: Thu, 10 Aug 2006
From investment.suite101.com
1.) Chip Investor: Bullish. Editor Steven Check's valuation model shows stocks currently to be slightly undervalued relative to corporate bonds. His model portfolio is close to being fully invested in stocks.
2.) Bob Brinker's Marketimer: Bullish. In his most recent issue, which was published in early August, editor Bob Brinker projects that the S&P 500 index will be trading in the 1350 to 1400 range "by later this year, or by the first half of 2007." That is equal to between a 6% and a 10% return over the next six to ten months. Brinker is recommending that subscribers' stock portfolios be fully invested.
Bob Brinker Fan Club @ home.netcom.com
3.-4.) Chartist and Chartist Mutual Fund Timer. Bullish. Editor Dan Sullivan believe that it is encouraging, from a technical point of view, that "Dow, the S&P 500 and the broader index the Russell 2000 have all held above their respective mid June and mid July lows." Sullivan also detects positive fundamental developments: "Our research indicates that approximately 84% of the economically-sensitive companies in the United States that had thus far reported their second quarter earnings during July experienced a significant improvement in their second quarter financial results." Sullivan's model stock portfolio is around 60% invested currently, and his model mutual fund portfolio is close to 100% invested.
5.) Investors Guide to Closed-End Funds: Bullish. Editor Thomas Herzfeld's "U.S. Equity Funds" model portfolio is around 83% invested.
6.) No Load Fund Investor: Neutral to Moderately bullish. Editor Mark Salzinger believes that, despite near-term uncertainty, "the longer-term picture looks positive for stocks, especially for large U.S. companies. As we approach 2007, reasonable valuations, steady corporate-earnings growth, and robust financial strength should help the market." His so-called "Wealth Builder" portfolio, his letter's most aggressive, currently allocates 70% to U.S. equities and another 15% to international stocks.
7.) Timer Digest: Bullish. Editor Jim Schmidt bases this newsletter's market timing model on a consensus of the top market timers. His consensus of the top ten based on performance over the last 52 weeks is bullish, with 6 bulls, 3 bears, and 1 neutral. His consensus of the top ten for performance over the last two years is also bullish, with 8 bulls and 2 bears. The newsletter's model portfolios currently are about 96% invested in stocks, on average.
8.) Vantage Point: Moderately Bullish. Editor John Harris concedes that "the climate is still choppy." But he adds that the market still as "an upward bias." He believes that "risk levels are such that a moderately bullish 90% to 100% equity allocation is warranted."
9.) Vickers Weekly Insider Report. Cautiously bullish. David Coleman, this newsletter's editor, wrote earlier this week that "the market is fairly valued – and will likely track upwards at essentially historical rates." The newsletter's two model portfolio are, on average, about 72% invested in U.S. stocks.
The bottom line? All 9 of these top timers are bullish to at least some extent, and none is an outright bear. The average equity allocation among all 9 is around 84%.
From investment.suite101.com |
