A Quick Parsing of the Resolution [John Podhoretz]
It's not a disaster, for this reason: The language of Paragraph 10, point 1, reads "Calls for a full cessation of hostilities based upon, in particular, the immediate cessation by Hizbollah of all attacks and the immediate cessation by Israel of all offensive military operations." This is not parallel language. Hezbollah must cease all attacks. Israel must only cease "offensive military operations." Since Israel itself defines its own action in South Lebanon as by definition defensive, not offensive, there's a lot of give here. Besides which, will Hezbollah really cease "all attacks"?
More resolution [Rich Lowry]
Was just talking to a friend who was noting that there is intense anger toward Israel within the administration for botching the war. He thinks the attitude was, "What's the point of giving them more time when they do nothing with it?" He thinks it's the worst defeat for Israel since 1948. He also guesses that the reason that the French flipped against the first resolution wasn't so much the Lebanese reaction as the realization of how poorly Israel was faring militarily. His general rule when it comes to U.N. resolutions in the Middle East is that they either simply reflect the facts on the ground, or make the victor give away a little bit of his victory; they never let someone pull victory out of a hat from defeat. So Israel will utlimately get from this resoltuon what they won on the ground, which is to say not much.
Vacuum? [Rich Lowry]
One idea that should be abandoned is the whole notion of an early Israeli exit creating a vacuum that Hezbollah can exploit to return to southern Lebanon. Since Hezbollah has never left southern Lebanon, it doesn't need a vacuum to return—it's still there.
However... [John Podhoretz]
...Olmert is still toast. My nephew, who is a veteran of the Israeli army but has not been called up because he's here in the States for a few months, writes:
"I can't believe he's doing this. I cannot believe we are once again running from Lebanon with our tails between our legs. Olmert's picture will now appear in the dictionary next to the word 'coward.'"
This will be a very common opinion across the political spectrum.
The robustness of the international force [Rich Lowry]
That the international force would be at best half-a-loaf became clear when no one was willing to contribute to a force that would actually adopt a tough posture vis-a-vis Hezbollah and when Siniora made it clear he wouldn't accept such a force. |
