Pete, the problem with valuing DDIM is like the problem of multiplying zero by infinity (I know, I know, the mathematicians have an answer to that problem ...)
DDIM will get a slice (less than 1%) of a big cake (close to infinity, actually $600 billion or so). How much is that slice worth?
Will they have any earnings after the year 2000? Some people say "None", others say "$16 a share".
Note that the technical analysts (like the vectorvest.com site that Bob Trocchi pointed to) work mostly on extrapolating the past, so if the music stops abruptly in or before the year 2000, they will have a nasty surprise. Not that it will trouble leading-edge traders, since they will sell-out very quickly. But the others will lose money.
So the bottom line is:
1. Will the music stop?
2. When will it stop?
3. When will the market anticipate the music stopping?
Item 3 is the acid test, and it has little to do with fundamental analysis, and lots to do with mass psychology (i.e. technical analysis). That's why guys like TA have been winning so far, and probably still will for some time. |
