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Politics : Foreign Affairs Discussion Group

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To: jttmab who wrote (197424)8/14/2006 11:51:04 PM
From: Nadine Carroll  Read Replies (4) of 281500
 
They don't know what Hezbollah got. They're guessing. Just in this conflict they think a couple of shipments got across the Syrian border. Iran doesn't hand over inventories to Israel.



They had a good idea; now they have a better one. That's called "intelligence". It's not certain but it's not guessing either. There are also educated guesses as to how much Hezbullah gets from Iran for and how much it raises through its charities and other business ventures (a cigarette smuggling ring was busted in the Carolinas not that long ago). I don't know them offhand since I don't study the subject but I'm sure you could acquaint yourself with the unclassified literature if you wanted.

Anyway, what are you getting at? Nobody in the entire region claims that Hezbullah doesn't answer to Tehran. Saying that we don't have the inventories of Iranian arms is not much of an argument.

As for why Nasrallah acted now, opinion is split: some say Iran needed the distraction; others that Nasrallah misjudged the Israeli response. It certainly didn't serve any Lebanese interests.
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