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Strategies & Market Trends : The Residential Real Estate Crash Index
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To: patron_anejo_por_favor who wrote (59924)8/15/2006 1:09:48 AM
From: SchnullieRead Replies (3) of 306849
 
when I tried to short NFI and NEW

I believe the LLLs finally cracked a short time ago and am always looking for new housing-related stocks to short. However, why short NEW at this point?

25% of the float is already shorted, its already taken a leisurely 20% drop, it has a forward P/E of 5-6 and.............it pays an 18% divie(!) Not only that, it has a 3-yr history of steadily increasing dividends, right up through June 2006.

I realize all of these metrics could have (and were) applied to the builders over the past year, except the steadily decreasing dividend. The scent of that divie could keep a lot of people in the game.

Of course, that cuts both ways....if they threaten to cut it, the stock goes down hard.

Is there any evidence that they won't be able to pay out the dividend anytime soon?
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