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Strategies & Market Trends : The Residential Real Estate Crash Index

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To: Incitatus who wrote (60008)8/15/2006 5:28:49 PM
From: TradeliteRead Replies (1) of 306849
 
From NAR.org website........

Metro Home Prices Transition in Second Quarter

WASHINGTON (August 15, 2006) – Appreciation in existing single-family home prices cooled to single digit rates in most metropolitan areas during the second quarter, while metro area condo prices were essentially flat in comparison with a year ago, according to the latest survey by National Association of Realtors®.

The association’s second-quarter metro area single-family home price report, covering changes in 151 metropolitan statistical areas,* shows 37 areas with double-digit annual increases and 26 metros experiencing generally minor price declines – many of the areas with declines are showing weakness in the local labor market.

The national median existing single-family home price was $227,500 in the second quarter, up 3.7 percent from a year earlier when the median price was $219,400. The median is a typical market price where half of the homes sold for more and half sold for less.

David Lereah, NAR’s chief economist, said a market transition is apparent. “With more sellers competing for the pool of buyers, the pressure on home prices has evaporated in most metro areas,” he said. “After a full year of double-digit gains in the national median price, the timing is right for a cooling in the rate of growth – we are presently experiencing a soft landing in the housing sector.”

Metro area condominium and cooperative prices, covering changes in 57 markets, show the national median existing condo price was $225,800 in the second quarter, down 0.3 percent from a year earlier. Fifteen metros showed double-digit annual gains in the median condo price, and 14 areas had declines.

NAR President Thomas M. Stevens said the growth in inventory is more pronounced in the condo sector. “Buyers generally have more choices in the condo market, so prices in many areas are fairly flat,” said Stevens, senior vice president of NRT Inc. “Speculators have left the market, meaning most buyers in the market today – both single-family and condo – are serious buyers who plan to stay in their homes as a long-term investment. Over the long haul, housing is the most solid investment that most people make.”

The largest single-family home price increase was in the Baton Rouge, La., area, where the second quarter price of $172,300 was 27.3 percent higher than a year ago. Next was Ocala, Fla., at $169,500, up 25.3 percent from the second quarter of 2005. The Virginia Beach-Norfolk-Newport News area of Virginia and North Carolina, with a second quarter median price of $237,300, increased 23.6 percent in the last year.

Median second-quarter metro area single-family prices ranged from $65,200 in Danville, Ill., to nearly 12 times that amount in the San Francisco-Oakland-Fremont area where the median price was $751,900. The second most expensive area was the San Jose-Sunnyvale-Santa Clara area of California, at $748,200, followed by the Anaheim-Santa Ana-Irvine area (Orange Co., Calif.), at $726,200.

Other low-cost markets include the Youngstown-Warren-Boardman area of Ohio and Pennsylvania, the second least-costly metro at $78,700, and Decatur, Ill., with a second-quarter typical resale home price of $85,300.

In the condo sector, the strongest gains were in the Phoenix-Mesa-Scottsdale area, where the second quarter price of $189,600 rose 25.3 percent from a year ago. In the Trenton-Ewing area of New Jersey, the median condo price of $261,600 rose 23.3 percent from the second quarter of 2005, while Honolulu, at $305,000, increased 18.7 percent.

Metro area median existing condo prices in the second quarter ranged from $109,900 in Greensboro-High Point, N.C., to $647,200 in San Francisco-Oakland-Fremont. The second most expensive reported condo market was Los Angeles-Long Beach-Santa Ana, at $410,500, followed by the San Diego-Carlsbad-San Marcos area of California at $373,800.

Other low cost condo markets include Bismarck, N.D., at $110,000, and Rochester, N.Y., at $110,500.

Regionally, the strongest increase in was in the Northeast where the median resale single-family home price in the second quarter was $299,200, up 6.3 percent from a year ago. The strongest increase in the region was in Elmira, N.Y., at $87,300, up 12.4 percent from the second quarter of 2005, followed by Glens Falls, N.Y., with a median price of $158,700, up 11.8 percent, and Philadelphia-Camden-Wilmington, at $235,100, up 11.4 percent.

In the South, the median existing single-family home price was $188,200 in the second quarter, up 4.1 percent from a year earlier. After the Baton Rouge, Ocala and Virginia Beach-Norfolk-Newport News areas, the strongest increase in the South was in Gainesville, Fla., at $214,100, up 19.7 percent from the second quarter of 2005. Next were the Florida areas of Jacksonville and Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, at $198,000 and $231,600 respectively, both up 18.8 percent from a year ago.

In the West, the median existing single-family home price rose 3.6 percent to $350,800 during the second quarter. The strongest increase in the West was in the Portland-Vancouver-Beaverton area of Oregon and Washington, at $242,700, up 19.1 percent from second quarter of 2005, followed by Spokane, Wash., at $179,000, up 18.6 percent, and Eugene-Springfield, Ore., at $227,600, up 18.3 percent from a year ago.

In the Midwest, the second-quarter median existing single-family home price of $167,400 slipped 2.0 percent from a year earlier. The strongest metro increase in the Midwest was in Bismarck, N.D., where the median price of $138,600 was 14.1 percent higher than the second quarter of 2005. Next was the St. Louis area, at $153,000, up 7.8 percent, and Waterloo-Cedar Falls, Iowa, at $108,200, up 7.4 percent in the last year.

The National Association of Realtors®, “The Voice for Real Estate,” is America’s largest trade association, representing more than 1.3 million members involved in all aspects of the residential and commercial real estate industries.
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*Areas are generally metropolitan statistical areas as defined by the U.S. Office of Management and Budget. A list of counties included in MSA definitions is available at:
census.gov

Regional median home prices include rural areas and samples of many smaller metros that are not included in this report; the regional percentage changes do not necessarily parallel changes in the larger metro areas. The only valid comparisons for median prices are with the same period a year earlier due to seasonality in buying patterns. Quarter-to-quarter comparisons do not compensate for seasonal changes, especially for the timing of family buying patterns.

NAR began publication of metropolitan area median single-family home prices in 1982; the metro area condo price series was launched earlier this year.

Because there is a concentration of condos in high-cost metro areas, the national median condo price often is higher than the median single-family price. In a given market area, condos typically cost less than single-family homes. As the reporting sample expands in the future, additional area will be included in the condo price report.

Tables of metropolitan area median prices, percent changes and some historic data are available at the site below – under Research click on Housing Statistics, then scroll down the center to Metropolitan Area Prices.
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