The Residential Real Estate Crash Index Message Board

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Strategies & Market Trends : The Residential Real Estate Crash Index

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To: Les H who wrote (60050)	8/16/2006 12:12:20 PM
From: Think4Yourself	Read Replies (1) of 306849

That article should be in the editorial section. It is so full of faulty logic that it is incredible that the editor even let it be published. The primary flaw is that they imply that we are in the ninth inning of the slowdown when we are at most in the second inning. For example, they suggest housing has already levelled off at the current level, when it is actually falling almost as fast as new home mortgage apps. They compare sales to a recent historical norm that includes the greatest buildout in history. They compare the employment numbers without considering that the layoffs in the construction industry are just starting. They talk about consumer confidence being strong so far when home prices are just now starting to fall. They only quote the cheerleaders like NAR's David Lereah, who this week AGAIN announced a soft landing has been made. They talk about interest rates falling within the last year, as if the high was a year ago, and then later mention that the high was just a few months ago. They also failed to connect that purchase mortgage apps are falling even though interest rates are falling. They fail to mention the new lending rules about to go into effect. They fail to mention that foreclosures are rising rapidly nationwide. They fail to mention Florida at all, or even what is happening to bubble markets in general. No mention of cutbacks in personnel, rapidly growing unsold inventory levels, slowing sales, the discounts builders are giving, the constant barrage of earnings warnings, or the record low builder sentiment. They quote median home price changes from last January to last February as if that one month change is supposed to have some special significance. It's the most biased article I have seen in months. Truly shoddy reporting and explains why readers can't "rate" the article or comment on it. All that being said, I suspect the idiotic masses will buy homebuilders based on it. As an SI poster's "favorite quote" says, "Perception is Reality".

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