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Technology Stocks : AMD:News, Press Releases and Information Only!
AMD 203.14-0.8%Jan 9 9:30 AM EST
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To: Brian Hutcheson who wrote (729)9/24/1997 11:01:00 PM
From: Patient Engineer   of 6843
 
Brian, Re:"From the fundamental point of view , in your opinion should the stock be selling much lower because of a slow ramp ?"

To be honest, I have no idea what AMD is worth anymore. Does a slow ramp justify the punishment this stock has taken? No. But I am not at all convinced that we are just looking at a slow ramp. Management has lost credibility with me and Wallstreet as a whole. Do you really believe AMD is shipping 150K chips per week right now, but street prices are up anyway? I don't. Just because Jerry says its so, doesn't mean its so. That lack of credibility is a fundamental problem.

The key thing keeping me in the stock is the fact that AMD is incredibly valuable to someone like IBM or Motorola who knows how to manufacture the CMP process. For IBM, K6+ would be less than 50mm2 and would run at 500+MHz in their copper-based 7s process. They could do this next year and be ahead of Intel for a good 6-12 months while they get K7 ready. Now how much should IBM be willing to pay to challenge Intel in that way? $6B is nothing compared to the value that AMD brings. PowerPC is dying with Apple, buying AMD is the one best play that IBM has to recapture the glory of years past. Will they do it? The logic of this combination is so overwelming I am having a hard time selling the rest of my AMD shares for fear that I would miss the excitement;-)

Time will tell.
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