Rubble, : " The VVUS chart looks strikingly similar to the Feb-Mar formation. Today would be analagous to the Feb 19 peak. I'm still in VVUS, but I'm worried.".
Rubble I think you need to be carefull in assigning cause and effect:
"because the two charts are similar the same will happen to Vivus ".
This reminds me what thje famous British Hypertension clinician John Pickering once said: In England you ned a license to wath television.He noted that in the last 10 years applications for TV licenses had gone up; he also noted that during that time the incidence of hyopertension hasd increased; therefore he said "we should conclude that hypertension is causef by too much TV watching".This was in relation to the was peoiple did some reasearch and ascribed cause and effect relationship.
The situation with Vivus in Feb '97 was different than now .180 degrees different to the point that it would be a waste of time in even discussing it.
My initial average price on Vivus was 18. I sold at 30 on July
?12 when Q2 eps came out. I bought back with 20% of my initial
investment,3-4 weeks later; with my trades I increased that through profit to 30% of my initial investment.Because od the recent breakout
I dug into my cash and increased the 30% to the equivalent of 40 % of my initial investment.If Vivud goes down that will be wonderfull news
for me gg because I will continue to plow cash in and average down and theoretically ( and actually) I can double my present postion
( remaining 60%) and buy all the way down to...18!! That will give me a giant position at average of 26 , to double up to 52!! I hope the MMs are listening. I suggest that
a) everybody else do the same,( buy on the wasy down, if you can, or if you can,t
b) don't sell when the MMs are playing games.
I wonder howmuch of the out standing short is held by institutions who are now trying to force you to sell in the low 30s so they can buy it, hold it to ....75? gg, and make a nice profit at your expense.
As my good friend ( in spirit, I never met him ), Carlton Lutz is want ot say to his minions:
GUYS & GALS ( we have at least 3 now so we can go plural gg ):
DON'T SELL;BUY MORE !! ( on weakness ); SQUEEZE THEM HARD!!!!
MAKE THEM BUY BACK VIVUS AT 45-55 !!!! AND PAY THOUGH THE NOSE."
Together we can do it.
Again, the numbers. 1997 : Growth rate >75%; PE 22; eps $ 1.70
1998 : >> > 100%, eps $3, at current price37, = PE 12.
Again, you are buying at a PE of 12 a stock with
a growth tate of 75-100 %
At 37, VIVUS IS ON SALE again.As Tim G correctly states, the true price of Vivus should be, eps$1.60X Growth rate of 75, = >$100 ( 120,to be exact).
TA
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