Bob Brinker, His Critics, His Defenders, and His Competitors Message Board

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Strategies & Market Trends : Bob Brinker, His Critics, His Defenders, and His Competitors

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Oct 29 4:00 PM EDT

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From: Math Junkie	8/17/2006 5:04:33 PM
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Much has been written over the years about Bob Brinker's failed attempt at short term trading, when he issued his first bulletin, in October of 2000 between regular issues of Marketimer. He recommended that subscribers put from twenty to fifty percent of cash reserves into QQQ (now QQQQ), in anticipation of a two-to-four month "countertrend rally." This has been controversial not only because the trade attempt turned out to be very unprofitable, and in fact has still not been closed, but also because he revealed in the next issue of Marketimer that he was not including it in his model portfolios, and he does not reveal the existence of the trade in his advertising or on the radio. Another issue that has been discussed periodically is what effect it would have had if a follower of his model portfolios had taken the advice in the bulletin. I calculated a worst case scenario as follows: Kirk, a competing investment letter publisher, estimated that the most aggressive commitment to the QQQ recommendation would have reduced Portfolio I by about 25%, and I think his methodology is reasonable. That would reduce the reported gain for 12/31/1999 to 7/31/2006 from 67.6% to 25.7%. SPY with dividends included lost 4.2% during that same period. Thus, even with a worst case commitment to the QQQ trade, Brinker beat the market by 31.2% since the end of 1999. Sources: suite101.com (Scroll down to middle of page.) table.finance.yahoo.com. table.finance.yahoo.com. (Note: Use "Adj. Close" figures to include dividends.) bobbrinker.com (Shows total balance for Portfolio I on 7/31/2006 as $228,946.) The total balance for Portfolio I on 12/31/1999 was shown as $136,620 in the January 2000 Marketimer.

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