The Friday Line: U.S. Senate
THE FIX BLOG
By Chris Cillizza on Friday Line
The closer we get to the election (82 days but who's counting), the more volatile the bottom half of our Senate Line becomes.
Two races dropped precipitously over the last month: Tennessee and Minnesota. In Tennessee, Rep. Harold Ford Jr.'s (D) chances took a major hit when former Chattanooga Mayor Bob Corker won the August 3 primary rather easily over former Reps. Van Hilleary and Ed Bryant. Corker was the most moderate of the three Republicans and carried the added bonus of being neither a lawmaker nor a lobbyist -- two major strikes against a candidate in this year's political atmopshere.
In Minnesota, two polls -- one conducted for Hennepin County Attorney Amy Klobuchar's (D) campaign, the other for the Minneapolis Star-Tribune -- showed the Democrat with a wide lead (19 points and 18 points, respectively) over Rep. Mark Kennedy (R). While even Democrats admitted that the surveys likely caught Klobuchar at her high-water mark, Republicans acknowledge that their candidate trails by high single digits or low double-digits at the moment. That makes the contest difficult for Kennedy to win given the current political climate.
The fastest riser of the month is Washington State's Senate race, which moves up four spots in the rankings. Polling continues to show that former Safeco Insurance executive Mike McGavick (R) is within striking distance of incumbent Sen. Maria Cantwell (D), who now carries the ignominious distinction of being the most endangered Democratic incumbent in the country.
Two other races are vying to crack next's month Senate line: Virginia and Michigan. In Virginia, much has been made of Sen. George Allen's "macaca" comments. While we believe the episode did damage to Allen's campaign, we don't think it will lead to his defeat. Much more worrisome for Allen are the rapidly changing demographics of the Commonwealth, where the northern Virginia suburbs are growing larger and more Democratic by the day.
Republicans in Michigan and nationally are more and more optimistic about their candidate -- Oakland County Sheriff Mike Bouchard -- and his chances of beating Sen. Debbie Stabenow this fall. Bouchard won a comfortable victory in the Republican primary and his latest ad, which his campaign left on the air following his win, is excellent. But beating an incumbent -- especially one as well-financed and savvy as Stabenow -- is never easy, and this race still hasn't gelled enough to crack the top 10. It is, however, on the cusp.
Remember, the top ranked race on the Line is the most likely to change party control in November. Agree? Disagree? The comments section is ready and waiting.
To the Line!
10. Tennessee: We can already hear Democrats complaining about our decision to drop this race three slots following former Chattanooga Mayor Bob Corker's victory in the Republican Senate primary earlier this month. But, we can't find a single neutral observer who believes that Rep. Harold Ford's chance at victory increased or even stayed the same with Corker's nomination. For a Democrat to win an open U.S. Senate seat in the South these days he or she needs a problematic GOP opponent. In 2004, Republicans swept the South -- winning five open seats there (North Carolina, South Carolina, Georgia, Louisiana and Florida). Two years earlier, Republicans won open Senate seats in North Carolina, South Carolina, Texas and Tennessee. (The last time a Democrat won an open seat in the South was in 2000 when Bill Nelson took Connie Mack's seat.) Given that track record, it's hard to see how Ford wins despite his demonstrated fundraising skills and political savvy. (Previous ranking: 7)
9. Minnesota: While we don't believe that Amy Klobuchar (D) is ahead of Rep. Mark Kennedy (R) by 18 or 19 points, we do think the Democrat has a margin either in the high single or low double digits. Now that Kennedy is on television (with several terrific spots courtesy of media consultant Scott Howell) we would expect that margin to narrow somewhat, but even Republicans admit that this is a difficult race. We are beginning to suspect that our initial read on this race was right: In a matchup between a traditional Republican and a traditional Democrat in a Democratic-leaning state in a year in which the political wind is blowing at the Democrat's back, it's likely the Democrat will win. Republicans believe Kennedy's quirkiness will be a major asset in the fall and help him avoid being labeled as just another rubber stamp for President Bush. Maybe, but this race seems to be a longer shot than it was at the start of the cycle. (Previous ranking: 6)
8. New Jersey: There's no question that appointed Sen. Bob Menendez (D) is running a considerably more aggressive campaign than state Sen. Tom Kean Jr. (R). Love him or hate him, Menendez is the consumate pol -- in twenty places at once and constantly issuing press releases. By comparison Kean is running a relatively low-key campaign and is a much less proven commodity on the stump, having served less than two full terms in the state Senate following an unsuccessful Congressional bid in 2000. Kean does, however, have the benefit of his last name -- political gold in the state. His father -- former Gov. Tom Kean -- is a beloved figure in new Jersey and remains in the public eye thanks to his stewarship of the 9/11 Commission. Still, New Jersey Republicans haven't won a contested race for governor or Senate since Christie Todd Whitman was elected governor in 1993. (Previous ranking: 8)
7. Maryland: Despite his incredibly poor fundraising, former Rep. Kweisi Mfume (D) continues to poll even (or close to it) with Rep. Ben Cardin (D). Cardin's nascent statewide television campaign could give him a boost, but it looks more likely that the Sept. 12 primary will be competitive. Wealthy developer Josh Rales (D) is also flooding the airwaves with ads and former Baltimore County Executive Dennis Rasmussen (D) and American University professor Allan Lichtman (D) are both running active campaigns. Any vote for those three candidates comes directly out of Cardin's total and complicates his chances of beating Mfume. General election polling shows Mfume running even with Maryland Lt. Gov. Michael Steele (R), and a race between two such prominent figures in the black community would assuredly draw national attention. (Previous ranking: 8)
6. Washington: Ask Republican strategists privately to list their best chances of a pickup this fall and this is often the first race mentioned. Months of polling -- albeit it all conducted by the Republican firm Strategic Vision -- has showed incumbent Sen. Maria Cantwell with a 4 to 5 point lead. Challenger Mike McGavick has run an interesting campaign to date -- casting himself as a populist outsider who will bring a much-needed business perspective to the Senate. He has also strategically used his considerable financial resources, donating millions to his campaign in advance of the state's Sept. 19 primary. But McGavick's giving has not yet triggered the Millionaire's Amendment, which would allow Cantwell to tap past donors for more cash. Cantwell is hamstrung by the fact that the candidates' current funds are technically for the primary -- not the general election. Since McGavick faces scant competition in his primary and most of his spending will in fact help him in the general election contest, the Cantwell campaign has asked for an advisory opinion on the matter from the Federal Election Commission. (Previous ranking: 10)
5. Missouri: If there were any questions about whether targeted Republicans would distance themselves from President Bush in order to win re-election this fall, the last month in Missouri has answered them. Sen. Jim Talent went on the air with his first ad, in which a narrator says "most people don't care if you're red or blue, Republican or Democrat." The commercial never mentions Talent's party affiliation. Instead it ends with the phrase "Jim Talent. Works." (One cool sidenote: On his website, Talent provides commentary about the ad -- a sort of political "pop up video".) State Auditor Claire McCaskill and the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee will be sure to remind Missouri voters of the "R" after Talent's name and turnout should be in their favor thanks to two ballot initiatives -- one on an increase in the minimum wage and another on the expansion of stem-cell research -- that are expected to draw Democrats to the polls. (Previous ranking: 4)
4. Ohio: Although we still believe Republicans will have a field day with Rep. Sherrod Brown's (D) voting record, we also can't ignore polls. In a July Columbus Dispatch survey, Brown had a 45 percent to 37 percent lead over Sen. Mike DeWine -- a VERY dangerous place for an incumbent to be with just a few months left before the election. DeWine's campaign also muffed an ad attacking Brown for his alleged weakness on national security by doctoring a photo of the World Trade Center. The Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee hit back immediately with an aggressive attack on DeWine's own security bona fides -- perhaps an early signal that the party will not take attacks lying down this cycle. (Previous ranking: 5)
3. Rhode Island -- While conventional wisdom dictates that the primary loss by Connecticut Sen. Joe Lieberman (D) was a bad omen for Sen. Lincoln Chafee's (R) chances against Cranston Mayor Steve Laffey in the Sept. 12 primary, we think a point made in a recent column by Stu Rothenberg is actually more meaningful when it comes to assessing Laffey's chances. In it, Rothenberg effectively debunks the idea that the number of Democrats who have re-registered as unaffiliated voters (in order to vote in the Republican primary) is any higher than in a typical election year. Without a heavy influx of unaffiliated voters, it's hard to see how Chafee wins this race. (Previous ranking: 3)
2. Montana -- Sen. Conrad Burns (R) has made a career of committing foot in mouth gaffes. His latest came when he exploded at a group of firefighters who he accused of not doing their jobs effectively. In post Sept. 11 politics it's hard to imagine a worse group to offend than firefighters and Burns's comments drew widespread press attention within the state and across the country. As long as this race is a referendum on Burns, it is state Sen. Jon Tester's (D) to lose. Tester must be careful not to assume, however, that Montana has undergone a wholesale ideological change in the last few years -- it still has a conservative minded electorate. Remember that Gov. Brian Schweitzer (D) won in 2004 not by emphasizing his Democratic bona fides but by presenting himself as a non-partisan Montanan. (Previous ranking: 2)
1. Pennsylvania -- Republicans rejoiced with the release of a new Quinnipiac University poll that showed Sen. Rick Santorum (R) down just six points to state Treasurer Bob Casey Jr. (D). There's no question that Santorum is moving upward, but there were signs in that Quinnipiac poll that showed just how tough a race this is for the incumbent. More voters (44 percent) disapprove of Santorum than approve (42 percent) of him. On top of that President Bush seems to be a major drag on Santorum, with just 33 percent of those surveyed approving of the chief executive and 64 percent disapproving. Santorum will never stop working to win this race (which has won him grudging, but private, admiration from Democrats) so it's impossible to write him off. No one expected Casey to win this race by double digits so don't read too much into Santorum's improving numbers. (Previous ranking: 1) |
