Paul--- To an extent,,,,,,,,, I too am not looking for a moonshot-- but enjoy the hell out of them when they happen. The 3/98 numbers and Y2K stock valuations will be very high as the will either have a ton of cash or have already bought companies that will allow them to survive.
Any company that "crashes" because of Y2K problems will be EXTREMLY CHEAP! Mostly because no one in the world would want them. If management is not smart enough to 1.Fix it early enough or 2. have the resources to get by until it is fixed why would you want it even for free? MOST MIS and IS was completed by pen and paper with the assistance of telephones in the recent past and (GOD HELP ME) could be done that way in the future.The reason computers are used is because of effiency -- not a life and death situation MOST of the time. The chips that run the plants are top fixes ,, not faxes,email,accounting,and all other general office requirements. No financial institution, utility provider, or etc will allow THEMSELVES to be pulled into the lawyers laps over a Y2K fix. I am NOT indicating the problem is a small one,, it is large--but manageable (and expensive). Most business that do not become compliant on time will either go bankrupt or spend more getting that way late plus absorbing additioal costs for labor to manually process the required paperwork. An example being todays accountants really never add,, adding machines or computers do--- do you really believe accountants do not know how to add?? Do you believe engineers are not capable of using a slide rule and calculator?
I believe there will be many companies that are hurt and others that go out of business--and no one will buy their worthless stock. Others will be compliant enough to get by (probably the vast majority) and still others will be (some are now) compliant. I do not believe the sky will fall in. I have been in a business/govt environment for a long time and believe the FIX will be put off as long as possible by all as the negative effect on the bottom line and shareholders will complain. This will happen to an extent to every NON-Y2K stock. During the high interest rate / oil drilling times of the 70s and 80s I kept CDs in Texas. These often paid 16 - 18% vs the 9 -10% locally. I went for the highest interest rate available. I cannot remember how many of these banks failed and within days accounts were transfered all the notifications done without a skip,, except after a short period the interest rate would drop. Never worried for one second. Never lost a dime. The same can be accomplished in business. Businesses WILL work together and share resources. New business will come on the scene to provide services to those not yet compliant. I am happy to report I have faith in the American people and businesses to survive without a "crash".
JOHN |
