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Strategies & Market Trends : Bob Brinker: Market Savant & Radio Host

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To: Kirk © who wrote (23851)8/18/2006 5:08:31 PM
From: J-L-S  Read Replies (2) of 42834
 
"Speaking of honesty, are you still telling people to use electricity to heat empty rooms?"

OK, Kirk ... now I'm totally convinced you are hooked on pot. This is easy to recognize, as pot heads have very short attention spans. Pot may be good for some artistic endeavors, but it's no good for anything or anyone else.

My point in that message was that my friend, whose solar house is 100% electrical, was bitching during the dead of winter to his wife about leaving the lights on, and he made the point of how inefficient that was. I essentially pointed out to him that the heat lost in the lights replaced the heat put out by his electrical baseboard heaters. Get it? Get it? It all goes up in heat anyway, whether it is a light or a heater. Oh, by the way, no one puts thermal insulation in interior walls. All insulation is in exterior walls, ceilings, and floors. If a family and their children are going to live in all the rooms of a house -- that is, they don't board up rooms during the winter as the elite and rich do in their castles in Europe -- then for thermal calculations, one has to consider all the rooms within the insulated box (or house) to be one thermal mass. In fact, the R value of un-insulated interior walls is quite small, and heat flows quite readily from one room to the other through the walls. Now, if you are going to keep a room, such as a bedroom, cooler than the rest of the house, you would turn the thermostat down in that room and close the door. Remember, this is the dead of winter in Minnesota. You would not turn the heater off altogether. (Well, maybe you would.) It wouldn't really matter if you left the light on -- the baseboard heater would still come on, but not as often.

Kirk, I don't know why I go to such lengths to explain to you such simple things. I guess I feel sorry for you. I'm starting to loose that feeling. You're just plain stupid.

"I dare ya!"

But do you double dare me? Now you are beginning to sound childish. I already pointed out two other relationships, but I guess you were taking a drag off your roach at the time and missed them. So, try these:

1) Anticipation of higher CPI and PPI causes oil prices to go up. It's not the other way around, as you suggest. Therefore, they follow the same cycle with a phase shift due to the anticipation factor. Remember? ... Bernanke talks about controlling inflation expectations.

2) CPI and PPI follow a 4- to 5-year cycle in your graph. So do oil prices. Everything in life follows cycles. Ever hear of the 3-year semiconductor cycle? Ever hear of election cycles? Plot anything that has a 4- to 5-year cycle against oil prices, and you will have what you are asking for.

But how do you explain that average Core CPI was higher in 2001 than it is now, especially with oil having gone up 2:1 since then? You haven't answered that question yet, and I've brought it up three times.
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