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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory

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To: Ramsey Su who wrote (68523)	8/19/2006 8:04:40 PM
From: yard_man	Read Replies (3) of 110194

we could still be close to the peak in world oil production and have crude go to $30 -- demand also plays a role?? I don't think the world would be a terrible place with $45 oil. Are you saying it would be awful?? It would help reduce the cost of my commute. <g> I don't think crude in Indonesia, Venezuela or Nigeria requires such high prices as we have now -- it's not that marginal?? How many of the citizens are getting the trickle down now crude @ 70? I would bet very few ... isn't that what the kidnapping, unrest and gum-flapping is all about? I think what the lower price would imply is a recession here -- anticipation of reduced demand and a serious world-wide contraction. mid 50s might be consistent with a "super-tanker" slowdown -- slow motion recession. I just wonder if that is possible. I think energy stocks are discounting a bounce back to the 50's or 40's; 30's and there's going to be some serious technical damage to them. Only brave souls will be buying if that happens?? I would love such an oppty, but don't expect it ...

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