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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory
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To: bart13 who wrote (68537)8/20/2006 1:10:57 AM
From: Wyätt Gwyön  Read Replies (2) of 110194
 
thanks a lot! that is world demand instead of just US demand, but if i am reading it correctly, there were only a couple of brief periods of very slight negative demand growth--briefly in 1991, then for the better part of 1993. but the dips were very slight, no greater than -0.5%.

in the wake of the early 2000s recession it does not look like demand even went negative, just briefly to 0% growth. i will guess that US did experience a decline during the recession, but by 2000 Chinese demand growth may have made up for that decline.

this suggests to me that global demand may not contract even if we have a pretty bad recession in the US starting late this year or next year. we would expect this to be a housing induced financial bubble implosion, so it seems similar to the tech bubble implosion in the effects it may have on crude demand. just a guess.

if demand doesn't contract, i don't think crude prices will fall that much.
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