Do you think that 10 people sign up because of it?
Well, yes, they do. Dylan has 1.7 Million weekly listeners from the best available information. If that is the case, it could well exceed Stern's listenership as far as the number of distinct listeners. Of course, Dylan is costing XM a small fraction of what Sirius is paying for Stern, but Dylan doesn't generate ad revenue, either.
It is folly to assume that the most valuable content item is that which brings the most subscribers. Were that true, Stern clearly would be; but you have to consider the cost of the content as well as the other content which is offered by the service. An objective look at the quality and quantity of content offered by both services suggests it is, at worst, an even race, and more likley, XM has a pretty decent edge. Sirius has Stern and NFL.
XM and Sirius are selling an entire package of content. Stern, alone, can't come close to bringing in enough subscribers to make him a worthwhile acquisition (as those who are paying attention have seen). The same is true of Dylan and would be true of Limbaugh. (O&A is a different case, because XM is now generating revenue from O&A beyond subscriber and ad revenue from XM 202, and that additional revenue is likely to end up more than paying the cost of O&A).
Will Oprah generate 55M over three years for XM? Maybe not. Just as NASCAR won't generate $107.5M for Sirius.
The question is whether the entire content package is sufficient to attract enough subscribers to pay those costs plus all the other costs associated with running the business and still, eventually, return a profit.
It is more complicated than, "Will Dylan bring enough subscribers to pay his way?". But "complicated" is something you don't seem to do very well, so I'll just drop it at that. |
